Match Info

NETHERLANDS: EREDIVISIE - ROUND 22

Date: 19 February 2023, Sunday

Location: Cambuur Stadion (Leeuwarden)

Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	Cambuur		Heerenveen

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	2.3	Watch
	3.1	3.3	2.3
	3.05	3.45	2.3
	3.27	3.36	2.35
	3.1	3.25	2.3	Watch
	3.13	3.38	2.29	Watch
	3.15	3.35	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↑ (2.93)	3.34 ↓ (3.35)	2.31 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cambuur
30.3%

Draw
28.5%

Heerenveen
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

28.1%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

27.4%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cambuur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cambuur than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	44.4%	38.9%

Cambuur - Heerenveen Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Cambuur will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). Heerenveen will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 9).

Cambuur has the most likely position - 18 (50.42%), has project points - 24, has currently - 13, has a good chance of relegated (90%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Heerenveen has the most likely position - 9 (20.07%), has project points - 44, has currently - 27, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 40, small importance 14, small match rating 27. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cambuur won 0.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Heerenveen could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Heerenveen will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Cambuur won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 13-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Cambuur won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeuwarden Cambuur
Dutch Eredivisie
11.02.23	NEC Nijmegen - Cambuur	0:0 ✺
05.02.23	Cambuur - Ajax	0:5 ✺
29.01.23	Cambuur - Fortuna Sittard	1:2 ✺
26.01.23	Groningen - Cambuur	0:1 ✺
21.01.23	Cambuur - Sparta Rotterdam	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TLLWL
- SC Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie
12.02.23	Heerenveen - Feyenoord	1:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
07.02.23	NAC Breda - Heerenveen	1:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
04.02.23	Utrecht - Heerenveen	1:0 ✺
28.01.23	Heerenveen - Vitesse	1:3 ✺
25.01.23	Fortuna Sittard - Heerenveen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
13.11.22	Heerenveen - Cambuur	2:1
01.05.22	Heerenveen - Cambuur	3:3
19.12.21	Cambuur - Heerenveen	1:2
31.01.16	Cambuur - Heerenveen	0:1
01.11.15	Heerenveen - Cambuur	2:0
15.02.15	Cambuur - Heerenveen	2:1
19.10.14	Heerenveen - Cambuur	2:2

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