Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 33

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion (Breda)

Referee: van der Eijk S. (Ned)


	NAC Breda		Heerenveen

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.7	2.6	Watch
	2.5	3.9	2.5
	2.48	3.7	2.65
	2.54	3.9	2.66
	2.51	3.6	2.66	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.5
	2.73	3.76	2.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.44)	3.71 (3.71)	2.58 ↓ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NAC Breda
37.5%

Draw
25.7%

Heerenveen
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

25.5%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

26.5%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NAC Breda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	8.3%	75%

NAC Breda - Heerenveen Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Breda will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Heerenveen will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heerenveen: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Bielica D. (G) 3. Odoi D. 15. Mahmutovic E. 22. Hillen R. 25. Valerius C. 14. Sowah K. 16. Balard M. 4. Kemper B. (C) 90. Holtby L. 24. Ayew A. 9. Soumano M.	22. Klaverboer B. (G) 45. Braude O. 4. Kersten S. 3. Willemsen M. 19. Zagaritis V. 8. Brouwers L. (C) 16. Linday M. 20. Trenskow J. 10. Meerveld R. 11. Oyen L. 9. Vente D.
Substitutes
7. Brym C. 21. Candelaria J. 55. Ghalidi B. 20. Jensen F. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 8. Leemans C. 26. Reulen P. 19. Salama A. 32. Talvitie J.	35. Ahmed I. 31. Bakker N. (G) 40. Bonevacia C. 36. Courtens N. 15. Egbring M. 50. Gurbuz E. 38. Mulder I. 18. Nordas L. 28. Petrov H. 30. Schreuder T. (G)
Coaches
Hoefkens C.	Veldman R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Kemper B. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Oyen L. ↓, Nordas L. ↑,
62', Trenskow J. ↓, Petrov H. ↑,
74', 2 - 0, Kemper B. (Penalty Awarded),
78', Holtby L. ↓, Ghalidi B. ↑,
78', Soumano M. ↓, Reulen P. ↑,
80', Odoi D. 🟨,
81', Zagaritis V. ↓, Gurbuz E. ↑,
81', Meerveld R. ↓, Courtens N. ↑,
82', Odoi D. ↓, Candelaria J. ↑,
90+3', Courtens N. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Breda won 1.

Recent form of Breda has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Heerenveen is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Heerenveen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Breda won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 16:28. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Breda won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:15. (average 1.3:1.7).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

NAC Breda: 15.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	11:11	0	9

Last Results with these Odds

NAC Breda - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 38.73%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Heerenveen - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 35.8%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
02.05.26	Utrecht - NAC Breda	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	NAC Breda - Ajax	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Fortuna Sittard - NAC Breda	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	NAC Breda - Sparta Rotterdam	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Zwolle - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLTTL
- SC Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie
03.05.26	Volendam - Heerenveen	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Heerenveen - Fortuna Sittard	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	AZ Alkmaar - Heerenveen	3:0 ✺
05.04.26	Heerenveen - Heracles Almelo	4:1 ✺
22.03.26	NEC Nijmegen - Heerenveen	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
24.10.25	Heerenveen - NAC Breda	3:3
12.01.25	NAC Breda - Heerenveen	2:4
31.08.24	Heerenveen - NAC Breda	4:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
07.02.23	NAC Breda - Heerenveen	1:2
Club Friendly
01.08.20	NAC Breda - Heerenveen	1:0
Dutch Eredivisie
12.05.19	Heerenveen - NAC Breda	2:1
22.12.18	NAC Breda - Heerenveen	4:2

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