Match Info

NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie - Round 33

Date: 12 May 2024, Sunday

Location: Abe Lenstra Stadion (Heerenveen)

Referee: Martens R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	Heerenveen		Vitesse

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	5.25	Watch
	1.55	4.75	5.25
	1.55	4.95	4.95	Watch
	1.47	5	6.28
	1.55	4.85	5.4
	1.5	4.8	5
	1.55	4.75	5.1	Watch
	1.51	4.6	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.63)	4.78 ↑ (4.22)	5.33 ↑ (4.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heerenveen
62.3%

Draw
19.9%

Vitesse
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

22.4%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

17.8%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Vitesse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-16.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Heerenveen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitesse than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitesse could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Heerenveen - Vitesse Predictions

Users Predictions: Heerenveen will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Noppert A. (G) 45. Braude O. 4. van Beek S. (C) 6. van Ottele S. 7. Kohlert M. 33. Haye T. 26. Tahiri A. 24. Walemark P. 28. Brouwers L. 20. Sahraoui O. 11. van Amersfoort P.	1. Room E. (G) 2. Arcus C. 6. Oroz D. 15. Hendriks R. 5. Mica Pinto 25. de Regt G. 14. Aaronson P. 20. Meulensteen M. 17. Kozlowski K. 8. van Ginkel M. (C) 7. Boutrah A.
Substitutes
15. Ali H. 23. Bekkema J. (G) 5. Bochniewicz P. 9. Karlsbakk D. S. 10. Loizou L. 18. Nicolaescu I. 17. Nunnely C. 21. Nunumete D. 19. Olsson S. 13. van der Hart M. (G) 40. van Ee E. 14. Webster C.	55. Bramel T. (G) 19. Buitink T. 13. Cornelisse E. 22. Domgjoni T. 28. Hadj Moussa A. 23. Huisman D. 30. Mazilu A. 31. Schubert M. (G) 43. Van Zwam G. 58. Visser A.
Coaches
Van Wonderen K.	Sturing E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Tahiri A. (Pen),
21', Oroz D. 🟨,
23', 1 - 1, van Ginkel M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Meulensteen M. ↓, Cornelisse E. ↑,
46', Oroz D. ↓, Van Zwam G. ↑,
46', Hendriks R. 🟨,
56', 1 - 2, van Ginkel M. (Pen),
61', Aaronson P. 🟨,
68', Tahiri A. ↓, van Ee E. ↑,
68', van Amersfoort P. ↓, Nicolaescu I. ↑,
68', Walemark P. ↓, Nunnely C. ↑,
68', Haye T. ↓, Olsson S. ↑,
80', van Ginkel M. ↓, Buitink T. ↑,
83', Brouwers L. ↓, Webster C. ↑,
84', Aaronson P. ↓, Domgjoni T. ↑,
87', de Regt G. ↓, Hadj Moussa A. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 3, Buitink T. ⚽, Mica Pinto (A),

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 10 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).

Vitesse is Relegated to Eerste Divisie

Last 5 head-to-head matches Heerenveen won 2.

Recent matches Heerenveen is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Vitesse is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Vitesse could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Heerenveen is indisputable favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Heerenveen won 5 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 27-34.

Including matches at home between the teams Heerenveen won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10-16.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie
03.05.24	Almere City - Heerenveen	1:1 ✺
25.04.24	Heerenveen - PSV Eindhoven	0:8 ✺
14.04.24	Heracles Almelo - Heerenveen	0:2 ✺
07.04.24	Heerenveen - Utrecht	2:3 ✺
03.04.24	Heerenveen - Twente	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TLWLT
- Vitesse Arnhem
Dutch Eredivisie
05.05.24	Utrecht - Vitesse	1:0 ✺
28.04.24	Vitesse - Fortuna Sittard	3:2 ✺
13.04.24	PSV Eindhoven - Vitesse	6:0 ✺
07.04.24	Vitesse - NEC Nijmegen	0:3 ✺
02.04.24	Vitesse - Sparta Rotterdam	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch KNVB Beker
21.12.23	Vitesse - Heerenveen	1:0
Dutch Eredivisie
11.11.23	Vitesse - Heerenveen	1:3
Club Friendly
22.03.23	Heerenveen - Vitesse	1:1
Dutch Eredivisie
28.01.23	Heerenveen - Vitesse	1:3
20.08.22	Vitesse - Heerenveen	0:4
08.05.22	Vitesse - Heerenveen	1:2
30.10.21	Heerenveen - Vitesse	1:2

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