Match Info

CHINA: Super League - Round 12

Date: 17 May 2024, Friday

Location: Yutong International Sports Center (Shijiazhuang)


	Cangzhou Mighty Lions		Tianjin Jinmen Tiger

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.6	1.91	Watch
	3.5	3.5	1.9
	3.5	3.75	1.95	Watch
	3.78	3.75	1.97
	3.78	3.75	1.92
	3.5	3.6	1.85
	3.8	3.84	1.91	Watch
	3.65	3.6	1.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↑ (3.15)	3.67 ↑ (3.54)	1.91 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cangzhou Mighty Lions
25.6%

Draw
25.5%

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

26.5%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

26.2%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cangzhou Mighty Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tianjin Jinmen Tiger's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cangzhou Mighty Lions than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	22.2%	66.7%

Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Cangzhou will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tianjin Jinmen Tiger will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Shao Puliang (C) 17. Wen Da 15. Wang Peng 3. Sunzu S. 16. Zheng Kaimu 32. Sun M. 7. Zheng Dalun 18. Yao X. 8. Zhao Yingjie 10. Taty Maritu O. 9. Heber	22. Fang Jingqi (G) 15. Ming Tian 6. Han Pengfei 21. Skoric M. 16. Yang Zihao 7. Ademi A. 36. Guo Hao 14. Huang Jiahui 30. Wang Qiuming (C) 29. Ba Dun 9. Compagno A.
Substitutes
26. Guo Yunqi 29. Han Feng (G) 33. Hu Jiali 23. Li Hong 20. Liu Xinyu 27. Ma Fuyu 31. Solomon-Otabor V. 1. Sun Jianxiang (G) 13. Sun Qinhan 11. Tudi Dilyimit 36. Yang Yun	33. Ding Haifeng 10. Fiolic I. 18. Gao Huaze 19. Liu J. 1. Li Y. (G) 23. Qian Yumiao 40. Shi Yan 32. Su Yuanjie 4. Wang Xianjun 3. Wang Zhenghao 11. Xie Weijun 5. Yu Yang
Coaches
Zhao Junzhe	Yu Genwei

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', Zhao Yingjie 🟨,
11', Han Pengfei 🟨,
15', 0 - 1, Compagno A. ⚽, Ademi A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', Yao X. ↓, Solomon-Otabor V. ↑,
46', Huang Jiahui ↓, Wang Zhenghao ↑,
49', 0 - 2, Compagno A. ⚽, Ademi A. (A),
53', 1 - 2, Zheng Kaimu ⚽,
58', Wen Da ↓, Yang Yun ↑,
63', 2 - 2, Solomon-Otabor V. ⚽, Taty Maritu O. (A),
71', Sun Qinhan 🟨,
71', Guo Hao ↓, Xie Weijun ↑,
71', Ba Dun ↓, Fiolic I. ↑,
73', 2 - 3, Compagno A. ⚽, Ming Tian (A),
75', Ming Tian 🟨,
77', 🟨,
77', Wang Peng ↓, Tudi Dilyimit ↑,
80', 2 - 4, Ademi A. ⚽,
87', Compagno A. ↓, Shi Yan ↑,
87', Wang Qiuming ↓, Yu Yang ↑,
88', Zhao Yingjie ↓, Hu Jiali ↑,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 8 and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cangzhou won 0.

Cangzhou has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Tianjin Jinmen Tiger is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Cangzhou won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Cangzhou won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cangzhou Mighty Lions
Chinese Super League
12.05.24	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Zhejiang Professional	0:1 ✺
05.05.24	Meizhou Hakka - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	1:1 ✺
01.05.24	Shanghai Shenhua - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	4:0 ✺
26.04.24	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Henan Songshan Longmen	2:3 ✺
20.04.24	Shandong Taishan - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
Chinese Super League
11.05.24	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Shanghai Shenhua	0:0 ✺
04.05.24	Henan Songshan Longmen - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	1:2 ✺
30.04.24	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Beijing Guoan	0:1 ✺
26.04.24	Wuhan Three Towns - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	2:1 ✺
19.04.24	Zhejiang Professional - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
11.07.23	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	1:1
16.04.23	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	1:1
12.07.22	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	3:0
21.06.22	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	0:2
03.01.22	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	1:0
21.12.21	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	2:1
Chinese FA Cup
19.09.20	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	2:0

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