Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 2
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus
World	Disney+


	Caracas		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	6.5	3.9	1.55	Watch
	6	3.8	1.57
	6	4	1.53	Watch
	6.86	3.93	1.52
	6.67	3.92	1.55	Watch
	5.8	3.6	1.57	Watch
	6.22	3.92	1.55	Watch
	6	4	1.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.26 ↓ (7.78)	3.88 ↓ (4.37)	1.55 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caracas
15%

Draw
24.2%

Atlético Mineiro
60.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12%

21.4%

66.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.4%

20.4%

69.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caracas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Mineiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caracas than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Mineiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	37.5%	62.5%

Caracas - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Caracas (1.88) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Mineiro will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Caracas (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Atlético MG (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Benitez F. (G) 72. Rito E. 2. La Mantia F. 19. Mago L. 13. Yendis J. 5. Vegas M. 21. Rodriguez V. 15. Heraldez L. 14. Echenique E. 9. De Santis J. 31. Hernandez J.	22. Everson (G) 26. Renzo Saravia 4. Lyanco (C) 14. Vitor Hugo 38. Caio Paulista 25. Gabriel Menino 44. Rubens 8. Fausto Vera 11. Bernard 28. Cuello 33. Rony
Substitutes
38. Barrios E. 33. Correa W. 22. Figueroa A. 24. Jimenez N. 32. Morigi M. 25. Pena L. 17. Reinoso L. 3. Rivillo D. 4. Rodriguez B. 29. Rondon J. 7. Tegues D. 23. Vegas J. (G)	6. Alonso J. 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 16. Igor Rabello 19. Joao Marcelo 2. Natanael 20. Patrick Silva 35. Pedro Ataide 31. Robert (G) 23. Roman I. 47. Romulus 27. Ze Phelipe
Coaches
Aristeguieta F.	Cuca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Lyanco 🟨,
16', Gabriel Menino ↓, Roman I. ↑,
22', De Santis J. 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Rodriguez V. (Own goal),
39', Hernandez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Cuello 🟨,
66', 1 - 1, De Santis J. ⚽, Echenique E. (A),
70', Renzo Saravia ↓, Natanael ↑,
70', Bernard ↓, Joao Marcelo ↑,
71', Heraldez L. ↓, Morigi M. ↑,
80', Fausto Vera ↓, Patrick Silva ↑,
80', Caio Paulista ↓, Pedro Ataide ↑,
83', De Santis J. ↓, Reinoso L. ↑,
83', Echenique E. ↓, Jimenez N. ↑,
83', Rito E. ↓, Rivillo D. ↑,
84', Rubens 🟨,
87', Vegas M. ↓, Correa W. ↑,
88', Vitor Hugo 🟨,
90+2', Patrick Silva 🟨,

Preview

Caracas is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Atlético MG is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Caracas could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Atlético MG have a series of home games.

In this match Atlético MG is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Caracas won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:8 (average 0.5:4).

Including matches at home between the teams Caracas won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caracas FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
18.04.25	Caracas - Monagas	1:4 ✺
13.04.25	Zamora - Caracas	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Caracas - Cienciano	2:2 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
05.04.25	Caracas - Carabobo	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
01.04.25	Deportes Iquique - Caracas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLTLW
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
16.04.25	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
13.04.25	Atlético Mineiro - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.25	Atlético Mineiro - Deportes Iquique	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
28.05.24	Atlético Mineiro - Caracas	4:0
04.04.24	Caracas - Atlético Mineiro	1:4

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