Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 34

Date: 17 February 2024, Saturday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Jackson S. (Eng)


	Carlisle United		Cambridge United

	1	X	2
	2.8	3	2.7
	2.7	3.1	2.6
	2.7	3.2	2.65
	2.64	3.15	2.64
	2.88	3.07	2.78
	2.7	3.2	2.5
	2.77	3.2	2.63	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.74)	3.13 ↓ (3.3)	2.62 ↑ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
34.2%

Draw
30%

Cambridge United
35.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

28.6%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

29.2%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Cambridge United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cambridge United than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Carlisle United - Cambridge United Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Cambridge will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carlisle: 6.6% – 60%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lewis H. (G) 3. Armer J. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 26. Barclay B. 18. Ellis J. 7. Gibson J. 36. Vela J. 33. Neal H. 22. Mellish J. 27. Diamond J. 35. Armstrong L.	1. Stevens J. (G) 26. Gibbons J. 6. Bennett R. 5. Morrison M. 3. Andrew D. 14. Kaikai S. 4. Digby P. 21. Kachunga E. 8. Thomas G. 10. Lankester J. 18. Taylor L.
Substitutes
13. Breeze G. (G) 11. Butterworth D. 15. Charters T. 34. Grehan S. 6. Huntington P. 10. McCalmont A.	2. Bennett L. 27. Bonne M. 7. Brophy J. 24. Cousins J. 16. Ibsen Rossi Z. 25. Mannion W. (G) 19. May A.
Coaches
Simpson P.	Harris N.

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 17).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 1.

Carlisle has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Cambridge is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Carlisle could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 3 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 16-27.

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League One
10.02.24	Carlisle United - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
03.02.24	Leyton Orient - Carlisle United	3:2 ✺
27.01.24	Carlisle United - Bolton Wanderers	1:4 ✺
16.01.24	Barnsley - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
13.01.24	Carlisle United - Oxford United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Cambridge United
English League One
13.02.24	Portsmouth - Cambridge United	3:1 ✺
10.02.24	Cambridge United - Cheltenham Town	0:1 ✺
03.02.24	Shrewsbury Town - Cambridge United	1:2 ✺
27.01.24	Cambridge United - Burton Albion	0:0 ✺
20.01.24	Exeter City - Cambridge United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
28.10.23	Cambridge United - Carlisle United	1:0
English League Two
27.03.21	Carlisle United - Cambridge United	1:2
12.09.20	Cambridge United - Carlisle United	3:0
29.02.20	Cambridge United - Carlisle United	1:2
23.11.19	Carlisle United - Cambridge United	0:0
23.03.19	Carlisle United - Cambridge United	2:2
08.09.18	Cambridge United - Carlisle United	1:2

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