Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 28

Date: 13 January 2024, Saturday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Miles J. (Eng)


	Carlisle United		Oxford United

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.3	2.2
	3.3	3.3	2.1
	3.3	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.57	3.43	2.16
	3.57	3.43	2.16
	3.3	3.4	2.05
	3.33	3.44	2.14	Watch
	3.3	3.3	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.38 ↓ (3.6)	3.38 ↓ (3.47)	2.14 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
27.9%

Draw
28%

Oxford United
44.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

26.9%

47.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.4%

26.2%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Oxford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	21.4%	64.3%

Carlisle United - Oxford United Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Oxford will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Oxford: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lewis H. (G) 17. Whelan C. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 22. Mellish J. 18. Ellis J. 33. Neal H. 4. Moxon O. 10. McCalmont A. 19. Robinson J. 35. Armstrong L. 11. Butterworth D.	1. Cumming J. (G) 14. Smyth O. 5. Moore E. (C) 3. Brown C. 15. Stevens F. 18. McGuane M. 19. Goodrham T. 12. Bennett J. 20. Rodrigues R. 8. Brannagan C. 9. Harris M.
Substitutes
3. Armer J. 13. Breeze G. (G) 15. Charters T. 9. Edmondson R. 14. Garner J. 7. Gibson J. 24. Maguire S.	16. Burey T. 13. Eastwood S. (G) 17. Henry J. 22. Leigh G. 6. McEachran J. 39. O'Donkor G. 4. Thorniley J.
Coaches
Simpson P.	Buckingham D.

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )).

Carlisle is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Oxford is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Carlisle could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Oxford will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League One
06.01.24	Exeter City - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
01.01.24	Carlisle United - Port Vale	2:1 ✺
29.12.23	Wigan Athletic - Carlisle United	2:0 ✺
26.12.23	Fleetwood Town - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
23.12.23	Carlisle United - Cheltenham Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWLTL
- Oxford United
English EFL Trophy
09.01.24	AFC Wimbledon - Oxford United	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
06.01.24	Coventry City - Oxford United	6:2 ✺
English League One
01.01.24	Charlton Athletic - Oxford United	1:2 ✺
29.12.23	Oxford United - Derby County	2:3 ✺
26.12.23	Oxford United - Cambridge United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
12.08.23	Oxford United - Carlisle United	1:0
English League Two
30.04.16	Carlisle United - Oxford United	0:2
12.12.15	Oxford United - Carlisle United	1:1
28.03.15	Oxford United - Carlisle United	2:1
25.10.14	Carlisle United - Oxford United	2:1

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