Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 31

Date: 3 February 2024, Saturday

Location: Brisbane Road (London)

Referee: Yates O. (Eng)


	Leyton Orient		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	7
	1.55	3.9	6
	1.53	4	6.5
	1.52	3.8	6.2
	1.55	4.07	6.87
	1.5	3.9	6
	1.57	3.78	6.47	Watch
	1.48	3.9	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.83)	3.92 ↑ (3.44)	6.41 ↑ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leyton Orient
61.4%

Draw
24%

Carlisle United
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

27.4%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

27%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leyton Orient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leyton Orient's performance.

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carlisle United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leyton Orient than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leyton Orient that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlisle United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	10.5%	10.5%

Leyton Orient - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: Leyton Orient will win (15 of 19 users predict this - 78.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 60.62% – 97.28%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brynn S. (G) 22. Galbraith E. 19. Beckles O. (C) 5. Happe D. 2. James T. 8. Brown J. 15. El Mizouni I. 17. Forde S. 14. Moncur G. 11. Archibald T. 10. Sotiriou R.	40. Lewis H. (G) 2. Back F. 26. Barclay B. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 22. Mellish J. 19. Robinson J. 7. Gibson J. 33. Neal H. 36. Vela J. 35. Armstrong L. 27. Diamond J.
Substitutes
12. Cooper B. 47. Edwards K. 13. Howes S. (G) 32. Hunt R. 21. O'Neill O. 9. Pigott J. 18. Pratley D.	3. Armer J. 13. Breeze G. (G) 11. Butterworth D. 15. Charters T. 34. Grehan S. 24. Maguire S. 10. McCalmont A.
Coaches
Wellens R.	Simpson P.

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 10 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leyton Orient won 4.

Leyton Orient is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Carlisle is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Leyton Orient could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Leyton Orient is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Leyton Orient to win the game is with odds 1.58.

Last 18 head-to-head matches Leyton Orient won 9 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 36-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Leyton Orient won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 17-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leyton Orient
English League One
27.01.24	Reading - Leyton Orient	1:1 ✺
20.01.24	Leyton Orient - Bolton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
13.01.24	Portsmouth - Leyton Orient	0:3 ✺
01.01.24	Cambridge United - Leyton Orient	0:2 ✺
29.12.23	Leyton Orient - Wycombe Wanderers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.8 TWWWT
- Carlisle United
English League One
27.01.24	Carlisle United - Bolton Wanderers	1:4 ✺
16.01.24	Barnsley - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
13.01.24	Carlisle United - Oxford United	1:3 ✺
06.01.24	Exeter City - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
01.01.24	Carlisle United - Port Vale	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
04.11.23	Leyton Orient - Carlisle United	3:1
English League One
14.10.23	Carlisle United - Leyton Orient	0:1
English League Two
01.04.23	Leyton Orient - Carlisle United	1:0
22.10.22	Carlisle United - Leyton Orient	2:3
26.02.22	Leyton Orient - Carlisle United	0:1
21.08.21	Carlisle United - Leyton Orient	1:1
01.05.21	Leyton Orient - Carlisle United	2:3

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