Match Info

League Two - Round 38

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadium MK (Milton Keynes)

Referee: Mulhall S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Milton Keynes Dons		Colchester United

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.7	5	Watch
	1.71	3.6	4.8
	1.68	3.7	4.95
	1.68	3.78	5.25
	1.7	3.62	4.9	Watch
	1.67	3.5	5
	1.66	3.72	5.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.97)	3.66 ↑ (3.4)	4.99 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milton Keynes Dons
55.8%

Draw
25.5%

Colchester United
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

26.9%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

25.3%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Milton Keynes Dons's performance.

Colchester United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Colchester United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Milton Keynes Dons that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colchester United than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Colchester United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	15%	10%

Milton Keynes Dons - Colchester United Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. MK Dons will win (votes: 15 - 75%). Colchester will win (votes: 2 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for MK Dons: 56% – 94%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Colchester (3.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - MK Dons (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Milton Keynes Dons will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Colchester (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. MacGillivray C. (G) 21. Ekpiteta M. 32. Sanders J. 15. Offord L. 2. Jones G. 7. Crowley D. 6. Kelly L. 22. Mellish J. 26. Wiles B. 8. Gilbey A. (C) 10. Collins A.	1. Macey M. (G) 2. Hunt R. 6. Flanagan T. (C) 5. Tucker J. 40. Terry F. 30. Vincent-Young K. 25. Barbrook F. 16. Read A. 7. Anderson H. 14. Lisbie K. 9. Tovide S.
Substitutes
29. Hepburn-Murphy R. 9. Hogan S. 24. Lemonheigh-Evans C. 25. Nelson C. 16. Nemane A. 14. Tomlinson J. 27. Trueman C. (G)	27. Akachukwu R. 22. Back F. 21. Edwards O. 15. Gape D. 19. Goodwin W. 10. Payne J. 17. Williams J.
Coaches
Warne P.	Cowley D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Lisbie K. 🟨,
19', Tovide S. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Macey M. (Own goal),
44', Crowley D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Sanders J. 🟨,
60', Crowley D. ↓, Hogan S. ↑,
64', Hunt R. ↓, Payne J. ↑,
64', Tovide S. ↓, Goodwin W. ↑,
70', Collins A. ↓, Hepburn-Murphy R. ↑,
71', Wiles B. ↓, Nelson C. ↑,
72', Flanagan T. 🟨,
72', Barbrook F. ↓, Akachukwu R. ↑,
73', Lisbie K. ↓, Edwards O. ↑,
74', Anderson H. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
79', Payne J. 🟨,
88', Kelly L. ↓, Lemonheigh-Evans C. ↑,
88', Jones G. ↓, Nemane A. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 1.

MK Dons is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Colchester has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Colchester may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, MK Dons has had a series of away games.

In this match, MK Dons is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in MK Dons: Paterson C. (Inactive) Wilson K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Colchester: Araujo H. (Inactive) Mbick M. (Inactive) Perry B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in MK Dons: Collar W. (Inactive) Maguire L. (Inactive) Matete J. (Inactive) Mendez-Laing N. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Colchester: Iandolo E. (Injury)

We predict that MK Dons will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:17. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:3. (average 2:0.5).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Colchester: 1.62%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	10:13	-3	10

Last Results with these Odds

Milton Keynes Dons - the odds 1.97 are the expected chance of winning is 46.5%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Colchester United - the odds 3.45 are the expected chance of winning is 26.55%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milton Keynes Dons
English League Two
14.03.26	Swindon Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:2 ✺
10.03.26	Gillingham - Milton Keynes Dons	1:5 ✺
07.03.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Harrogate Town	4:1 ✺
28.02.26	Cambridge United - Milton Keynes Dons	1:1 ✺
23.02.26	Walsall - Milton Keynes Dons	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWWTW
- Colchester United
English League Two
13.03.26	Colchester United - Crawley Town	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Newport County - Colchester United	1:2 ✺
03.03.26	Chesterfield - Colchester United	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Colchester United - Salford City	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Colchester United - Barnet	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
01.01.26	Colchester United - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Colchester United - Milton Keynes Dons	2:3
English League Two
01.03.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Colchester United	0:1
English EFL Trophy
17.09.24	Colchester United - Milton Keynes Dons	2:1
English League Two
17.08.24	Colchester United - Milton Keynes Dons	2:0
26.12.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Colchester United	1:0
19.08.23	Colchester United - Milton Keynes Dons	2:3

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