Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 38

Date: 12 March 2024, Tuesday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Duckworth E. (Eng)


	Carlisle United		Barnsley

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.2	1.53
	5.5	4.2	1.53
	6	4.2	1.53
	6.07	4.3	1.56
	6.07	4.31	1.56
	5.5	4.2	1.53
	5.7	4.33	1.55	Watch
	5.6	4.2	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.87 ↑ (4.03)	4.24 ↑ (3.65)	1.53 ↓ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
16.1%

Draw
22.3%

Barnsley
61.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.4%

25.8%

50.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

25.2%

52%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carlisle United's form might have worsened.

Barnsley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Barnsley's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carlisle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barnsley than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Barnsley, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.1%	7.7%	87.2%

Carlisle United - Barnsley Predictions

Users Predictions: Barnsley will win (34 of 39 users predict this - 87.18%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.69% – 97.67%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lewis H. (G) 32. Emmanuel J. 5. Lavelle S. 6. Huntington P. (C) 22. Mellish J. 19. Robinson J. 21. McGeouch D. 33. Neal H. 15. Charters T. 35. Armstrong L. 27. Diamond J.	23. Killip B. (G) 2. Williams J. (C) 6. Durand de Gevigney M. 43. Earl J. 22. O'Keeffe C. 30. Phillips A. 3. Russell J. 48. Connell L. 7. Cadden N. 45. McAtee J. 9. Cosgrove S.
Substitutes
3. Armer J. 26. Barclay B. 13. Breeze G. (G) 11. Butterworth D. 7. Gibson J. 24. Maguire S. 10. McCalmont A.	10. Benson J. 44. Cole D. 17. Cotter B. 11. Grant C. 19. Marsh A. 26. McCart J. 60. Ravenhill R. (G)
Coaches
Simpson P.	Collins N.

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )).

Carlisle is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Barnsley is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Carlisle could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Barnsley is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League One
09.03.24	Charlton Athletic - Carlisle United	3:2 ✺
02.03.24	Carlisle United - Reading	1:3 ✺
27.02.24	Burton Albion - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
24.02.24	Bristol Rovers - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
17.02.24	Carlisle United - Cambridge United	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLWLL
- Barnsley FC
English League One
09.03.24	Barnsley - Lincoln City	1:5 ✺
05.03.24	Barnsley - Bolton Wanderers	2:2 ✺
02.03.24	Wycombe Wanderers - Barnsley	2:4 ✺
24.02.24	Barnsley - Derby County	2:1 ✺
17.02.24	Fleetwood Town - Barnsley	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
16.01.24	Barnsley - Carlisle United	2:1
English League Cup
13.08.19	Barnsley - Carlisle United	0:3

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