Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 33

Date: 27 February 2024, Tuesday

Location: Pirelli Stadium (Burton upon Trent)

Referee: Hicks C. (Eng)


	Burton Albion		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.4	3.75
	2.05	3.2	3.7
	2.05	3.25	3.75
	2.08	3.15	3.65
	2.14	3.23	3.9
	2	3.25	3.75
	2.08	3.2	3.88	Watch
	1.98	3.25	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.12)	3.24 ↓ (3.28)	3.75 ↑ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burton Albion
45.8%

Draw
29%

Carlisle United
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

28.7%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

24.5%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Burton Albion that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlisle United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.1%	4.5%	4.5%

Burton Albion - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: Burton Albion will win (102 of 112 users predict this - 91.07%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.79% – 96.35%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Max Crocombe 2. John Brayford . Aristote Nsiala 6. Ryan Sweeney 23. Tolaji Bola 37. Thomas Hamer 7. Joe Powell 25. Ciaran Gilligan 17. Mark Helm 11. Mason Bennett 20. Ademola Ola-Adebomi	40. Harry Lewis 5. Samuel Lavelle 26. Ben Barclay 19. Jack Robinson 2. Finley Jude William Back 36. Joshua Vela 22. Jon Mellish 7. Jordan Gibson 27. Jack Diamond 33. Harrison Neal 35. Luke Armstrong
Substitutes
. Antwoine Hackford 18. Bobby-Emmanuel Kamwa 999. Finn Delap 30. Jamal Clint-Ross Blackman . Kyle Hudin 21. Mustapha Soon Carayol 8. Rekeem Jordan Harper	10. Alfie Mccalmont 11. Daniel Butterworth 13. Gabriel Breeze 3. Jack Armer 34. Sean Grehan 24. Sean Maguire 15. Taylor Charters
Coaches
Paterson M.	Simpson P.

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 17 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Recent matches Burton is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Carlisle has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Burton will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Burton won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Burton won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burton Albion
English League One
24.02.24	Burton Albion - Northampton Town	0:2 ✺
17.02.24	Leyton Orient - Burton Albion	1:2 ✺
10.02.24	Bristol Rovers - Burton Albion	1:2 ✺
03.02.24	Burton Albion - Lincoln City	0:1 ✺
27.01.24	Cambridge United - Burton Albion	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.3 LWWLT
- Carlisle United
English League One
24.02.24	Bristol Rovers - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
17.02.24	Carlisle United - Cambridge United	0:4 ✺
10.02.24	Carlisle United - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
03.02.24	Leyton Orient - Carlisle United	3:2 ✺
27.01.24	Carlisle United - Bolton Wanderers	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
24.10.23	Carlisle United - Burton Albion	2:1
English League Two
15.04.15	Burton Albion - Carlisle United	1:1
21.10.14	Carlisle United - Burton Albion	3:4

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