Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 36

Date: 2 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Coy M. (Eng)


	Carlisle United		Reading

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.5	2.1
	3.3	3.4	2.1
	3.25	3.5	2.15
	3.44	3.3	2.06
	3.5	3.52	2.16
	3.3	3.4	2.1
	3.38	3.46	2.14	Watch
	3.2	3.35	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (2.82)	3.43 ↑ (3.41)	2.11 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
28.1%

Draw
27.4%

Reading
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

27.2%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

26.3%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Reading has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Reading than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	0%	84.6%

Carlisle United - Reading Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Reading will win (votes: 11 - 84.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Reading: 65% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lewis H. (G) 18. Ellis J. 5. Lavelle S. 6. Huntington P. (C) 22. Mellish J. 3. Armer J. 36. Vela J. 33. Neal H. 15. Charters T. 35. Armstrong L. 27. Diamond J.	1. Button D. (G) 17. Yiadom A. (C) 27. Mbengue A. S. 24. Bindon T. 2. Mola C. 29. Wing L. 36. Craig M. 11. Azeez F. 7. Knibbs H. 15. Ehibhatiomhan K. 10. Smith S.
Substitutes
13. Breeze G. (G) 11. Butterworth D. 7. Gibson J. 34. Grehan S. 24. Maguire S. 10. McCalmont A. 19. Robinson J.	30. Abrefa K. 6. Dean H. 4. Elliott B. 12. Mukairu P. 22. Pereira J. (G) 8. Savage C. 19. Wareham J.
Coaches
Simpson P.	Selles R.

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 20).

Carlisle is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Reading is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Carlisle could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Reading will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League One
27.02.24	Burton Albion - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
24.02.24	Bristol Rovers - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
17.02.24	Carlisle United - Cambridge United	0:4 ✺
10.02.24	Carlisle United - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
03.02.24	Leyton Orient - Carlisle United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLLLL
- Reading
English League One
24.02.24	Reading - Shrewsbury Town	2:3 ✺
20.02.24	Reading - Port Vale	2:0 ✺
17.02.24	Portsmouth - Reading	4:1 ✺
13.02.24	Fleetwood Town - Reading	1:1 ✺
10.02.24	Reading - Charlton Athletic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
28.11.23	Reading - Carlisle United	5:1

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