Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 39

Date: 16 March 2024, Saturday

Location: The Croud Meadow (Shrewsbury)

Referee: Mather S. (Eng)


	Shrewsbury Town		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.8
	1.98	3.3	3.8
	2.05	3.4	3.6
	2	3.33	4.21
	2.01	3.33	4.21
	1.95	3.4	3.8
	2.03	3.4	3.78	Watch
	1.91	3.35	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.82)	3.36 ↓ (3.43)	3.87 ↓ (4.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shrewsbury Town
47.5%

Draw
28.1%

Carlisle United
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

27.2%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

24.7%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shrewsbury Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shrewsbury Town than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Shrewsbury Town - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Shrewsbury will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Carlisle will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shrewsbury: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marosi M. (G) 5. Feeney M. 22. Dunkley C. (C) 33. Flanagan T. 3. Benning M. 18. Bloxham T. 7. Winchester C. 20. Bayliss T. 14. Perry T. 21. O'Brien A. 11. Udoh D.	40. Lewis H. (G) 26. Barclay B. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 22. Mellish J. 18. Ellis J. 21. McGeouch D. 33. Neal H. 11. Butterworth D. 3. Armer J. 35. Armstrong L. 27. Diamond J.
Substitutes
17. Bennett E. 9. Bowman R. 13. Burgoyne H. (G) 19. Price J. 15. Sobowale T. 6. Sraha J. 10. Tulloch R.	13. Breeze G. (G) 15. Charters T. 7. Gibson J. 34. Grehan S. 24. Maguire S. 10. McCalmont A. 19. Robinson J.
Coaches
Hurst P.	Simpson P.

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 17 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Shrewsbury won 4.

Recent matches Shrewsbury is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Carlisle is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Shrewsbury will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Shrewsbury won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 14-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Shrewsbury won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shrewsbury Town
English League One
12.03.24	Shrewsbury Town - Exeter City	0:3 ✺
09.03.24	Port Vale - Shrewsbury Town	1:2 ✺
02.03.24	Shrewsbury Town - Blackpool	0:2 ✺
27.02.24	Lincoln City - Shrewsbury Town	3:0 ✺
24.02.24	Reading - Shrewsbury Town	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LWLLW
- Carlisle United
English League One
12.03.24	Carlisle United - Barnsley	2:3 ✺
09.03.24	Charlton Athletic - Carlisle United	3:2 ✺
02.03.24	Carlisle United - Reading	1:3 ✺
27.02.24	Burton Albion - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
24.02.24	Bristol Rovers - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
02.09.23	Carlisle United - Shrewsbury Town	2:0
English League Cup
09.08.22	Shrewsbury Town - Carlisle United	3:2
English FA Cup
04.12.21	Carlisle United - Shrewsbury Town	1:2
English League Two
10.02.15	Carlisle United - Shrewsbury Town	1:2
16.09.14	Shrewsbury Town - Carlisle United	1:0
English League One
25.03.14	Carlisle United - Shrewsbury Town	0:0
05.10.13	Shrewsbury Town - Carlisle United	2:2

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