Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL Cup - 1/64-finals

Date: 13 August 2024, Tuesday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Toner B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


New-zealand	beIN Connect


	Carlisle United		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	5	3.7	1.7	Watch
	4.5	3.9	1.71
	4.75	4	1.72	Watch
	4.98	3.81	1.7
	5	3.79	1.66	Watch
	5.8	4	1.57
	4.57	3.98	1.72	Watch
	4.75	3.75	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.92 ↓ (4.99)	3.87 ↓ (4.02)	1.7 ↑ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
19.3%

Draw
24.6%

Stoke City
56.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.9%

23.4%

57.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.9%

22.2%

60.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.2%	6.2%	62.5%

Carlisle United - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Stoke will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stoke: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lewis H. (G) 2. Davies A. 6. Hayden A. 4. Thomas T. 22. Mellish J. 18. Ellis J. 16. Vela J. 17. Neal H. 26. Barclay B. 10. Wyke Ch. (C) 14. Adu Adjei D.	34. Fielding F. (C) 41. Dixon J. 16. Wilmot B. 43. Anderson F. 12. Johnson D. 30. Sidibe S. 8. Baker L. 6. Burger W. 42. Manhoef M. 14. Ennis N. 11. Koumas L.
Substitutes
27. Allan J. 29. Armstrong L. 13. Breeze G. (G) 11. Butterworth D. 31. Hetherington S. 9. Kelly G. 5. Lavelle S. 20. Williams B.	17. Bocat E. 23. Gibson B. 2. Gooch L. 1. Johansson V. (G) 28. Laurent J. 35. Lowe N. 22. Tchamadeu J. 37. Tezgel E. 15. Thompson J.
Coaches
Simpson P.	Schumacher S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
49', 0 - 1, Anderson F. ⚽,
60', Davies A. ↓, Williams B. ↑,
60', Adu Adjei D. ↓, Armstrong L. ↑,
66', Burger W. ↓, Thompson J. ↑,
66', Manhoef M. ↓, Gooch L. ↑,
72', Wyke Ch. ↓, Butterworth D. ↑,
77', Koumas L. ↓, Laurent J. ↑,
77', Ennis N. ↓, Bocat E. ↑,
77', Sidibe S. ↓, Tezgel E. ↑,
80', 0 - 2, Tezgel E. ⚽,
83', Barclay B. ↓, Lavelle S. ↑,

Preview

Carlisle is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Stoke is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Carlisle have a series of guest games.

In this match Stoke is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League Two
10.08.24	Gillingham - Carlisle United	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Stockport County - Carlisle United	1:2 ✺
30.07.24	Gateshead - Carlisle United	2:0 ✺
27.07.24	Rochdale - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
19.07.24	St. Mirren - Carlisle United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWLLT
- Stoke City
English League Championship
10.08.24	Stoke City - Coventry City	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Stoke City - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
30.07.24	Bolton Wanderers - Stoke City	0:1 ✺
27.07.24	Stockport County - Stoke City	1:0 ✺
23.07.24	Crewe Alexandra - Stoke City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLWLW

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