The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Carlisle United 37.2%
Draw 29.4%
Swindon Town 33.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
44.5%
27.4%
28.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
45.6%
28.1%
27.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carlisle United's form might have worsened.
Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Swindon Town's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+8.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carlisle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-5.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Swindon Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
16.7%
83.3%
Carlisle United - Swindon Town Predictions
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Swindon will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Breeze G. (G) 5. Lavelle S. (C) 4. Thomas T. 22. McArthur C. 24. Williams J. 42. Patching W. 43. Whelan C. 11. Jones J. 40. Harris K. 44. Embleton E. 17. Hugill J.
1. Bycroft J. (G) 2. Sobowale T. 5. Wright W. 4. Delaney R. 16. Cain J. 8. Clarke O. (C) 18. Kilkenny G. 6. Ofoborh N. 17. Nichols T. 22. Butterworth D. 10. Smith H.
Substitutes
26. Barclay B. 37. Bevan J. 45. Fusire S. 3. Harper C. 1. Lewis H. (G) 7. Robson E. 20. Scott C.
12. Barden D. (G) 38. Chard H. 7. Cotterill J. 23. Drinan A. 9. Glatzel P. 21. Tshimanga K. 25. Westley J.
Coaches
Williamson M.
Holloway I.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
29', Clarke O. ↓, Drinan A. ↑,
36', Jones J. 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 1, Butterworth D. ⚽, Nichols T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 4)
47', 0 - 2, Drinan A. ⚽,
54', Embleton E. ↓, Scott C. ↑,
62', Nichols T. ↓, Cotterill J. ↑,
64', Smith H. 🟨,
67', Jones J. 🟨,
67', 🟨,
70', Patching W. ↓, Bevan J. ↑,
74', Smith H. ↓, Westley J. ↑,
74', Ofoborh N. ↓, Tshimanga K. ↑,
75', Butterworth D. ↓, Glatzel P. ↑,
80', Whelan C. ↓, Robson E. ↑,
81', Harris K. ↓, Fusire S. ↑,
83', 0 - 3, Westley J. ⚽, Glatzel P. (A),
88', 1 - 3, Hugill J. ⚽, Williams J. (A),
89', Delaney R. 🟨,
90', 1 - 4, Glatzel P. ⚽, Tshimanga K. (A),
90+7', 1 - 5, Wright W. ⚽,
Preview
An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 16).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 3.
Carlisle is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Swindon is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Swindon could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Recently Carlisle have a series of guest games.
Recently Swindon have a series of home games.
The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
Last 15 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 21:22 (average 1.4:1.5).
Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:10 (average 1.1:1.4).
Last Results with these Odds
Swindon Town - the odds 3.31 are the expected chance of winning is 28.17%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.
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Breeze G. (G) 
Lavelle S. (C) 
Thomas T. 
Jones J. 
Sobowale T. 
Ofoborh N. 
Barden D. (G) 
Glatzel P. 
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