Match Info

National League - Round 12

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: EBB Stadium at Recreation Ground (Aldershot) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Albania	16:00	DAZN
Argentina	11:00	DAZN
Austria	16:00	DAZN
Bolivia	10:00	DAZN
Brazil	11:00	DAZN Brasil
Bulgaria	17:00	DAZN
Canada	10:00	DAZN Canada
Croatia	16:00	DAZN
Cyprus	17:00	DAZN
Czech Republic	16:00	DAZN
Denmark	16:00	DAZN
Ecuador	09:00	DAZN
Finland	17:00	DAZN
France	16:00	DAZN France
Germany	16:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	17:00	DAZN
Hungary	16:00	DAZN
Italy	16:00	DAZN Italia
Japan	23:00	DAZN Japan
Latvia	17:00	DAZN
Lithuania	17:00	DAZN
New Zealand	03:00	DAZN New Zealand
North Macedonia	16:00	DAZN
Norway	16:00	DAZN
Paraguay	10:00	DAZN
Poland	16:00	DAZN
Portugal	15:00	DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	17:00	DAZN
Serbia	16:00	DAZN
Slovenia	16:00	DAZN
Spain	16:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	16:00	DAZN
Switzerland	16:00	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	22:00	DAZN
Turkey	17:00	DAZN Turkiye
Ukraine	17:00	DAZN
United Kingdom	15:00	DAZN
Uruguay	11:00	DAZN
Usa	10:00	DAZN USA
Venezuela	10:00	DAZN
International	14:00	DAZN National League


	Aldershot Town		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.75	1.85
	3.50	3.60	1.80
	3.45	3.65	1.9
	3.68	4.19	1.87
	3.48	3.95	1.89	Watch
	3.5	4.1	1.82
	3.44	4.27	1.91
	3.45	3.75	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↑ (3.21)	3.91 ↑ (3.85)	1.87 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aldershot Town
26.5%

Draw
23.8%

Carlisle United
49.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.9%

24.1%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

23%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aldershot Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aldershot Town than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aldershot Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Aldershot Town - Carlisle United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hayes N. (G) 24. Oladunjoye E. 5. Oshilaja K. (C) 12. Stickland M. 18. Adom-Malaki N. 21. Peart B. 6. Odusanya D. 23. Lawless C. 11. Sandah H. 9. Dinanga M. 29. Lewis A.	1. Desbois A. (G) 17. Duru L. 5. Feeney M. (C) 15. Nicholson B. 22. Williams J. 6. Azeez M. 18. Ellis J. 4. Bunker H. 30. Jenks T. 10. Linney R. 7. Ajiboye D.
Substitutes
7. Abrahams T. 27. Alves J. 4. Borgnis J. 17. Dyce T. 16. Matton J. 13. Patmore C. (G) 20. Wyllie M.	31. Anderson T. 12. Galvin R. 16. Mair A. (G) 19. Obiero M. 2. Richardson K. 20. Wearne S. 8. Whelan C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Ajiboye D. ⚽, Azeez M. (A),
28', 0 - 2, Ajiboye D. ⚽, Williams J. (A),
32', Oladunjoye E. ↓, Dyce T. ↑,
41', Peart B. ↓, Matton J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
62', Ellis J. 🟨,
64', Dinanga M. ↓, Abrahams T. ↑,
70', Jenks T. ↓, Wearne S. ↑,
71', Ajiboye D. ↓, Obiero M. ↑,
74', Nicholson B. 🟨,
76', Oshilaja K. 🟨,
84', Linney R. ↓, Whelan C. ↑,
84', Williams J. ↓, Galvin R. ↑,
87', Stickland M. 🟨,
89', 1 - 2, Odusanya D. ⚽,
90', Ellis J. ↓, Anderson T. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 3, Obiero M. ⚽, Galvin R. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 7th in the Promotion - National League Playoffs - Quarter - finals and 16th).

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Carlisle is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Aldershot has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:4 (averaging 0:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Aldershot against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:2 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Carlisle	15	6	5	4	28:21	7	23
16	Aldershot	15	5	3	7	18:19	-1	18

Outrights of English National League for now

Carlisle: 2.48% Aldershot: 0.72%

Last Results with these Odds

Aldershot Town - the odds 3.21 are the expected chance of winning is 28.94%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aldershot Town
English National League North
29.09.26	Hornchurch - Aldershot Town	2:1 ✺
English National League
26.09.26	Aldershot Town - Tamworth	5:1 ✺
19.09.26	Barrow - Aldershot Town	1:0 ✺
English National League North
15.09.26	Aldershot Town - Yeovil Town	1:1 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Solihull Moors - Aldershot Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWLTW
- Carlisle United
English National League North
29.09.26	Fylde - Carlisle United	0:2 ✺
English National League
26.09.26	Carlisle United - Woking	2:5 ✺
19.09.26	Eastleigh - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
English National League North
15.09.26	Carlisle United - Forest Green Rovers	1:1 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Carlisle United - Southend United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

English National League
10.03.26	Aldershot Town - Carlisle United	0:2
13.09.25	Carlisle United - Aldershot Town	2:0

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