Match Info

National League - Round 12

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: EBB Stadium at Recreation Ground (Aldershot)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Aldershot Town		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.75	1.85
	3.50	3.60	1.80
	3.45	3.65	1.9
	3.68	4.19	1.87
	3.48	3.95	1.89	Watch
	3.5	4.1	1.82
	3.44	4.27	1.91
	3.45	3.75	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↑ (3.21)	3.91 ↑ (3.85)	1.87 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aldershot Town
26.5%

Draw
23.8%

Carlisle United
49.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

24.1%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

21.6%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aldershot Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aldershot Town than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aldershot Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carlisle United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Aldershot Town - Carlisle United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hayes N. (G) 24. Oladunjoye E. 5. Oshilaja K. (C) 12. Stickland M. 18. Adom-Malaki N. 21. Peart B. 6. Odusanya D. 23. Lawless C. 11. Sandah H. 9. Dinanga M. 29. Lewis A.	1. Desbois A. (G) 17. Duru L. 5. Feeney M. (C) 15. Nicholson B. 22. Williams J. 6. Azeez M. 18. Ellis J. 4. Bunker H. 30. Jenks T. 10. Linney R. 7. Ajiboye D.
Substitutes
7. Abrahams T. 27. Alves J. 4. Borgnis J. 17. Dyce T. 16. Matton J. 13. Patmore C. (G) 20. Wyllie M.	31. Anderson T. 12. Galvin R. 16. Mair A. (G) 19. Obiero M. 2. Richardson K. 20. Wearne S. 8. Whelan C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Ajiboye D. ⚽, Azeez M. (A),
28', 0 - 2, Ajiboye D. ⚽, Williams J. (A),
32', Oladunjoye E. ↓, Dyce T. ↑,
41', Peart B. ↓, Matton J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
62', Ellis J. 🟨,
64', Dinanga M. ↓, Abrahams T. ↑,
70', Jenks T. ↓, Wearne S. ↑,
71', Ajiboye D. ↓, Obiero M. ↑,
74', Nicholson B. 🟨,
76', Oshilaja K. 🟨,
84', Linney R. ↓, Whelan C. ↑,
84', Williams J. ↓, Galvin R. ↑,
87', Stickland M. 🟨,
89', 1 - 2, Odusanya D. ⚽,
90', Ellis J. ↓, Anderson T. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 3, Obiero M. ⚽, Galvin R. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 7th in the Promotion - National League Playoffs - Quarter - finals and 16th).

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Carlisle is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Aldershot has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:4 (averaging 0:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Aldershot against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:2 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Aldershot	13	5	3	5	18:16	2	18
14	Carlisle	13	4	5	4	23:20	3	17

Last Results with these Odds

Aldershot Town - the odds 3.21 are the expected chance of winning is 28.94%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aldershot Town
English National League North
29.09.26	Hornchurch - Aldershot Town	2:1 ✺
English National League
26.09.26	Aldershot Town - Tamworth	5:1 ✺
19.09.26	Barrow - Aldershot Town	1:0 ✺
English National League North
15.09.26	Aldershot Town - Yeovil Town	1:1 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Solihull Moors - Aldershot Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWLTW
- Carlisle United
English National League North
29.09.26	Fylde - Carlisle United	0:2 ✺
English National League
26.09.26	Carlisle United - Woking	2:5 ✺
19.09.26	Eastleigh - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
English National League North
15.09.26	Carlisle United - Forest Green Rovers	1:1 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Carlisle United - Southend United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

English National League
10.03.26	Aldershot Town - Carlisle United	0:2
13.09.25	Carlisle United - Aldershot Town	2:0

Aldershot Town - Carlisle United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide