Match Info

Cymru South - Round 12

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Carmarthen Town		Caerphilly Athletic

	1	X	2
	1.80	3.65	3.35
	1.86	3.83	3.40
	1.88	3.98	3.47
	1.84	3.75	3.35
	1.93	4.16	3.23
	1.85	3.85	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2)	3.87 ↑ (3.67)	3.38 ↑ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Carmarthen Town
49.2%

Draw
23.7%

Caerphilly Athletic
27.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.8%

24.4%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

22.8%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carmarthen Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Caerphilly Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carmarthen Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerphilly Athletic than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Caerphilly Athletic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Carmarthen Town - Caerphilly Athletic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
3', 0 - 1, Skiverton F. ⚽,
9', 0 - 2, Perrett D. ⚽,
24', 0 - 3, Evans J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
64', 1 - 3, Reed L. ⚽,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7th and 11th).

In recent outings, Carmarthen Town has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Caerphilly has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Carmarthen Town holding a narrow advantage.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Carmarthen Town	11	4	3	4	23:24	-1	15
10	Caerphilly	11	4	2	5	15:20	-5	14

Last Results with these Odds

Carmarthen Town - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 44.78%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
10.10.26	Cardiff Draconians - Carmarthen Town	2:2 ✺
02.10.26	Carmarthen Town - Llantwit Major	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Baglan Dragons - Carmarthen Town	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Carmarthen Town - Ynyshir Albions	2:2 ✺
31.08.26	Carmarthen Town - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLWTL
- Caerphilly Athletic
Welsh Cymru South
09.10.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Newport City	3:2 ✺
03.10.26	Pure Swansea - Caerphilly Athletic	3:1 ✺
25.09.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Pontypridd United	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Aberystwyth Town	2:3 ✺
04.09.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Caerphilly Athletic	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLLLT

Upcoming Matches