Match Info

Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 27 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi (Lecco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, RaiPlay, RAI Sport, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Max
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
World	Onefootball


	Catania		Ascoli

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.32	3.1	2.98	Watch
	2.39	3.1	3.08
	2.72	3.03	2.57	Watch
	2.3	2.8	2.9
	2.36	3.1	3.11	Watch
	2.18	3.25	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.15)	3.06 ↓ (3.2)	2.97 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Catania
38.8%

Draw
30.1%

Ascoli
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

28.5%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

28.8%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Catania has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Ascoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Catania than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ascoli than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	27.3%	45.5%

Catania - Ascoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Catania will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Ascoli will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ascoli: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Catania (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Catania (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
57. Dini A. (G) 68. Ierardi M. 73. Pieraccini S. 3. Celli A. 24. Casasola T. 16. Quaini A. 14. Di Tacchio F. (C) 20. Donnarumma D. 99. D'Ausilio M. 32. Forte F. 18. Caturano S.	1. Vitale S. (G) 23. Alagna M. 30. Curado M. (C) 33. Rizzo N. 17. Guiebre A. 62. Milanese T. 4. Damiani S. 10. Del Sole F. 25. Rizzo Pinna A. 15. D'Uffizi S. 9. Chakir M. A.
Substitutes
6. Allegretto A. 1. Bethers K. (G) 17. Bruzzaniti G. 29. Cargnelutti R. 10. Cicerelli E. 12. Coco L. (G) 30. Corbari A. 47. Di Noia G. 23. Lunetta G. 5. Miceli M. 19. Raimo A. 9. Rolfini A.	24. Bando A. 46. Barosi D. (G) . Corazza S. 80. Corradini G. 22. Dente R. (G) 14. Galuppini F. 35. Gori G. 6. Ndoj E. 11. Oviszach E. 2. Pagliai G. 28. Palazzino F. 5. Rama A. 7. Silipo A. 60. Zagari R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Caturano S. ⚽,
44', 2 - 0, Forte F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Del Sole F. ↓, Silipo A. ↑,
65', Milanese T. ↓, Corradini G. ↑,
65', Rizzo Pinna A. ↓, Gori G. ↑,
66', D'Ausilio M. ↓, Cicerelli E. ↑,
72', Caturano S. ↓, Bruzzaniti G. ↑,
76', D'Uffizi S. ↓, Oviszach E. ↑,
77', Chakir M. A. ↓, Ndoj E. ↑,
82', Donnarumma D. ↓, Lunetta G. ↑,
82', Casasola T. ↓, Raimo A. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Oviszach E. ⚽,

Preview

First leg result: 0-4.

Recent performances by Catania have been up and down (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ascoli is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Catania won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Last Results with these Odds

Catania - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 42.47%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Catania
Italian Serie C Group A
24.05.26	Ascoli - Catania	4:0 ✺
20.05.26	Catania - Lecco	3:3 ✺
17.05.26	Lecco - Catania	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie C Group C
26.04.26	Atalanta U23 - Catania	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Catania - Potenza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LTTTT
- Ascoli Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
24.05.26	Ascoli - Catania	4:0 ✺
20.05.26	Ascoli - Potenza	1:0 ✺
17.05.26	Potenza - Ascoli	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
26.04.26	Campobasso - Ascoli	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Ascoli - Guidonia Montecelio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
24.05.26	Ascoli - Catania	4:0

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