Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 13

Date: 29 June 2024, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Goncalves A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Ceará		Ituano

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.5	7.5	Watch
	1.39	4.33	7.25
	1.38	4.5	8
	1.41	4.6	9.02
	1.43	4.3	7.61
	1.36	4.4	8
	1.4	4.45	7.95	Watch
	1.39	4.4	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.38)	4.44 ↓ (4.51)	7.84 ↑ (7.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
67%

Draw
21.1%

Ituano
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.4%

20.6%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

12.7%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-25.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ceará that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ituano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Ceará - Ituano Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Ituano will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Richard (G) 6. Ramos R. 40. Ramon Menezes (C) 4. David Ricardo 79. Matheus Bahia 8. De Lucca 10. Lucas Mugni 11. Aylon 97. Lourenco 16. Erick Pulga 73. Saulo Mineiro	12. Jefferson Paulino (C) 2. Leo Oliveira 3. Claudinho 4. Marcel Scalese 6. Richard 11. Jose Aldo 8. Miqueias 5. Rodrigo 7. Vinicius Paiva 9. Salatiel 10. Leozinho
Substitutes
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 82. Caio Rafael 45. Caique Nunes 7. Castro F. 33. Fernando Miguel (G) 99. Guilherme Castilho 77. Janderson 5. Jean Irmer 17. Joao Victor 21. Paulo Victor 2. Rai Ramos 96. Yago Lincoln	22. Aluisio 21. Bruno Alves 17. Bruno Xavier 18. Gabriel Falcao 20. Jean Pyerre 13. Lucas 23. Marlinho 16. Vinicius Poz 15. Vitao 14. Walber 1. Wesley Borges (G) 19. Ze Eduardo
Coaches
Vagner Mancini	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Vinicius Paiva ⚽, Leo Oliveira (A),
10', Leo Oliveira 🟨,
21', 1 - 1, Saulo Mineiro ⚽, Aylon (A),
30', 2 - 1, Saulo Mineiro ⚽, Lucas Mugni (A),
39', 3 - 1, Lourenco ⚽, Ramos R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Leozinho ↓, Bruno Alves ↑,
58', Claudinho 🟨,
60', David Ricardo ↓, Jean Irmer ↑,
60', Lourenco ↓, Guilherme Castilho ↑,
63', Richard 🟨,
65', Rodrigo ↓, Bruno Xavier ↑,
70', Lucas Mugni ↓, Castro F. ↑,
70', Ramos R. ↓, Rai Ramos ↑,
72', 4 - 1, Saulo Mineiro ⚽, Matheus Bahia (A),
75', Bruno Alves 🟨,
78', 4 - 2, Richard ⚽, Leo Oliveira (A),
89', Jose Aldo ↓, Gabriel Falcao ↑,
89', Leo Oliveira ↓, Lucas ↑,
89', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Ze Eduardo ↑,
90', Aylon ↓, Yago Lincoln ↑,
90', Jean Irmer 🟨,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 11 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

The competitors look crappy now.

In this match Ceará is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Ceará: Daniel Mazerochi (Injury)

There will not play in Ituano: Lipe (Injury) Madison (Injury) Neto Berola (Injury) Pablo (Injury) Ze Carlos (Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Ceará won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Ceará won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
25.06.24	Ponte Preta - Ceará	3:1 ✺
20.06.24	Ceará - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
16.06.24	Brusque - Ceará	1:0 ✺
10.06.24	Vila Nova - Ceará	3:2 ✺
31.05.24	Ceará - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTLLW
- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
22.06.24	Ituano - Brusque	1:1 ✺
18.06.24	Guarani - Ituano	3:3 ✺
15.06.24	Ituano - Paysandu	3:5 ✺
07.06.24	Coritiba - Ituano	4:2 ✺
02.06.24	Ituano - Avaí	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
28.07.23	Ceará - Ituano	1:1
14.04.23	Ituano - Ceará	2:0
Copa do Brasil
15.03.23	Ituano - Ceará	2:1 penalties

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