Match Info

J1 League - Round 9

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Yodoko Sakura Stadium (Osaka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Cerezo Osaka		Yokohama F. Marinos

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.5	3	Watch
	2.25	3.50	2.87
	2.35	3.4	2.72	Watch
	2.35	3.75	2.99
	2.28	3.62	2.96	Watch
	2.3	3.7	2.95
	2.43	3.54	2.78	Watch
	2.37	3.55	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.18)	3.57 ↓ (3.67)	2.88 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerezo Osaka
40.8%

Draw
26.4%

Yokohama F. Marinos
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

25.7%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

26.3%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerezo Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Yokohama F. Marinos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yokohama F. Marinos than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Cerezo Osaka - Yokohama F. Marinos Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Yokohama FM will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Nakamura K. (G) 27. Cools D. 4. Inoue R. 15. Hernandez J. 16. Okuda H. 10. Tanaka S. (C) 36. Irvine J. 66. Ohata A. 77. Fernandes L. 14. Yokoyama Y. 19. Sabbag P.	21. Iikura H. (G) 34. Kimura T. 17. Quinones J. 33. Suwama K. 25. Suzuki T. 41. Matsumura K. 28. Yamane R. 24. Kondo T. 40. Amano J. (C) 23. Miyaichi R. 9. Tanimura K.
Substitutes
31. Abe K. (G) 8. Kagawa S. 41. Komi Y. 45. Nagasoe K. 2. Nakamura T. 28. Okazawa K. 17. Sakata R. 97. Takahashi T. 7. Uejo S.	14. Chinen K. 11. Croux J. 54. Fujii S. 13. Inoue T. 8. Kida T. 43. Nitta R. 18. Onaiwu G. 1. Park Il-gyu (G) 7. Tono D.
Coaches
Machin P.	Corica S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Hernandez J. 🟨,
26', Ohata A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Irvine J. 🟨,
53', Hernandez J. ↓, Takahashi T. ↑,
62', Fernandes L. ↓, Komi Y. ↑,
66', Kimura T. 🟨,
71', Yokoyama Y. ↓, Okazawa K. ↑,
72', Sabbag P. ↓, Kagawa S. ↑,
75', Amano J. ↓, Tono D. ↑,
75', Miyaichi R. ↓, Croux J. ↑,
82', Tanimura K. ↓, Nitta R. ↑,
82', Kondo T. ↓, Onaiwu G. ↑,
89', Matsumura K. ↓, Chinen K. ↑,
90+2', Kagawa S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 1.

In recent outings, Cerezo Osaka has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Yokohama FM is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Cerezo Osaka may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Cerezo Osaka: Kambayashi G. (Shoulder Injury) Shibayama M. (Knee Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Cerezo Osaka has recorded 12 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 36:25 (averaging 1.8:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cerezo Osaka against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 23:9 goals (averaging 2.1:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	4	2	0	2	7:7	0	6
10	Cerezo Osaka	4	2	0	2	3:5	-2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Cerezo Osaka - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 43.31%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Yokohama F. Marinos - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 30.96%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerezo Osaka
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Cerezo Osaka - Kagoshima United	2:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Fujieda MYFC - Cerezo Osaka	1:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Cerezo Osaka	6:1 ✺
06.09.26	Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo Verdy	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WWTLT
- Yokohama F. Marinos
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Mito HollyHock	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Machida Zelvia - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Yokohama F. Marinos	0:2 ✺
02.09.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Kyoto Sanga	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
30.11.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Cerezo Osaka	3:1
11.05.25	Cerezo Osaka - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:0
24.08.24	Yokohama F. Marinos - Cerezo Osaka	4:0
27.04.24	Cerezo Osaka - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:2
12.11.23	Yokohama F. Marinos - Cerezo Osaka	2:0
01.04.23	Cerezo Osaka - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:1
10.07.22	Cerezo Osaka - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:2

Cerezo Osaka - Yokohama F. Marinos: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide