Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE B - ROUND 31

Date: 5 October 2023, Thursday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)

Referee: Lima Barbosa M. (Bra)


	Chapecoense		ABC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.63	3.5	6	Watch
	1.67	3.43	6.83
	1.65	3.25	6
	1.64	3.48	6.05	Watch
	1.64	3.35	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.73)	3.4 ↑ (3.1)	6.14 ↑ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
57.1%

Draw
27.6%

ABC
15.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

29.8%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

23.2%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ABC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-15.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chapecoense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ABC than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that ABC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	7.7%	7.7%

Chapecoense - ABC Predictions

Users Predictions: Chapecoense will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Airton (C) 15. Ronei 13. Bruno Leonardo 43. Lucas Freitas 80. Mancha 55. Gustavo Cazanotti 4. Victor Ferraz 88. Bruno Nazario 7. Giovanni Pavani 29. Marcinho 9. Henrique Dourado	1. Michael (G) 2. Gedeilson 30. Nathan Melo 4. Habraao 44. Fabricio 19. Ramon 8. Randerson 10. Thonny Anderson 22. Andrey 11. Wallyson (C) 9. Paulo Sergio
Substitutes
20. Bastos T. 22. Bruno 51. Carlos Eduardo (G) 6. Cristiano 99. Darnlei 31. Douglas Borel 67. Fabiano 94. Felipe Ferreira 8. Kaio Mendes 97. Marco Antonio 30. Rafael Ribeiro 32. Rodrigo Freitas	15. Afonso 26. Anderson Cordeiro 5. Daniel 97. Evandro 31. Goncalves G. D. 7. Matheus Anjos 90. Matheus Refundini (G) 33. Rodriguez A. 28. Wallace
Coaches
Oliveira C.	Fuchs A.

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Chapecoense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Chapecoense is a favorite.

There will not play in Chapecoense: Alisson Farias (Injury) Leo (Injury)

There will not play in ABC: Walfrido (Injury) Wellington (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chapecoense won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Chapecoense won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie B
01.10.23	Vila Nova - Chapecoense	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
24.09.23	Chapecoense - Nação	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
23.09.23	Chapecoense - Ceará	1:1 ✺
16.09.23	Sampaio Corrêa - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
16.09.23	Figueirense - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTTLL
- ABC FC
Brazilian Serie B
30.09.23	ABC - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
25.09.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - ABC	2:1 ✺
15.09.23	ABC - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
07.09.23	Tombense - ABC	3:0 ✺
02.09.23	ABC - Sampaio Corrêa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
09.06.23	ABC - Chapecoense	1:1
Copa do Brasil
09.06.21	ABC - Chapecoense	3:0
02.06.21	Chapecoense - ABC	3:1
Brazilian Serie B
21.09.13	ABC - Chapecoense	2:0
07.06.13	Chapecoense - ABC	5:1

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