Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 30

Date: 21 April 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Chaves (Chaves)

Referee: Almeida N. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV3


	Chaves		Estoril Praia

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.5	Watch
	2.9	3.2	2.4	Watch
	2.9	3.25	2.45	Watch
	3.14	3.18	2.5
	3.14	3.18	2.5
	2.88	3.3	2.38	Watch
	2.99	3.34	2.4	Watch
	2.95	3.3	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.99 ↑ (2.59)	3.24 ↓ (3.31)	2.45 ↓ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
31.8%

Draw
29.3%

Estoril Praia
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

28.3%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

27.7%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	54.5%	27.3%

Chaves - Estoril Praia Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Estoril will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 3. Ygor Nogueira 13. Fernandes V. 40. Pius J. 77. Correia J. (C) 28. Nwakali K. 80. Raphael Guzzo 14. Essugo D. 27. Carraca 20. Ribeiro R. 23. Hernandez H.	31. Marcelo Carne (G) 23. Alvaro P. 13. Joao Basso 3. Vital B. 21. Gomes R. 82. Fernandes M. 7. Vinicius Zanocelo 78. Araujo T. 10. Guitane R. 11. Cassiano (C) 91. Heriberto Tavares
Substitutes
4. Bruno Rodrigues 33. Cruz S. 99. Jo 70. Morim H. 31. Moura R. (G) 9. Paulo Victor 18. Pinho P. 10. Sanca L. 2. Sylla H.	48. Costa da Silva M. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 98. Garcia Andrade F. 20. Joao Carlos 22. Mangala E. 9. Marques A. 33. Marques J. 2. Parra R. 79. Pina W.
Coaches
Morgado L.	Seabra V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', Carraca 🟨,
19', Araujo T. ↓, Pina W. ↑,
32', 1 - 0, Correia J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', 1 - 1, Joao Basso ⚽,
62', Alvaro P. 🟨,
63', Heriberto Tavares ↓, Marques J. ↑,
63', Guitane R. ↓, Garcia Andrade F. ↑,
63', Correia J. ↓, Sanca L. ↑,
71', 1 - 2, Garcia Andrade F. ⚽,
74', Raphael Guzzo ↓, Paulo Victor ↑,
76', Hernandez H. ↓, Jo ↑,
81', Essugo D. ↓, Morim H. ↑,
87', Cassiano ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
90+13', Marcelo Carne 🟥,
90+13', Alvaro P. 🟥,
90+20', 2 - 2, Morim H. ⚽,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chaves won 1.

Chaves is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Estoril is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Estoril could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Chaves won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Chaves won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Liga Portugal
15.04.24	Vizela - Chaves	0:1 ✺
07.04.24	Chaves - Portimonense	2:3 ✺
29.03.24	Benfica - Chaves	1:0 ✺
17.03.24	Chaves - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2 ✺
11.03.24	Gil Vicente - Chaves	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLLLT
- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
13.04.24	Estoril Praia - Braga	0:1 ✺
08.04.24	Casa Pia - Estoril Praia	0:0 ✺
30.03.24	Estoril Praia - Porto	1:0 ✺
15.03.24	Estoril Praia - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
10.03.24	Benfica - Estoril Praia	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
10.12.23	Estoril Praia - Chaves	4:0
18.03.23	Estoril Praia - Chaves	0:2
01.10.22	Chaves - Estoril Praia	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
08.05.21	Estoril Praia - Chaves	1:1
09.01.21	Chaves - Estoril Praia	0:2
12.10.19	Chaves - Estoril Praia	2:0
Liga Portugal
25.02.18	Chaves - Estoril Praia	2:0

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