Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 19

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Chaves (Chaves)

Referee: Araujo D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2


	Chaves		Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.6
	2.02	3.2	3.65
	2.14	3.3	3.94
	1.94	3.33	4.03	Watch
	2.05	3	3.5
	2.08	3.09	3.77	Watch
	1.96	3.25	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.94)	3.18 ↓ (3.34)	3.76 ↓ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
45.7%

Draw
29.4%

Lusitânia
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

28%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

27.5%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	18.2%	27.3%

Chaves - Lusitânia Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Lusitânia will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chaves: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Gudzulic M. (G) 34. Alves R. (C) 33. Simoes T. 22. Muscat Z. 19. Tiago Almeida 8. Pinho P. 97. Joao Teixeira 77. Reinaldo 27. Esajas R. 17. Roberto 30. Kusso D.	32. Vitor Hugo (G) 3. Josue Sa 4. Collard D. 5. Silverio (C) 29. Cerveira T. 12. Arsenio 8. Tokinho Doria 16. Rocha L. 11. Pereira M. 99. Platiny 21. Joao Vasco
Substitutes
44. Bikoro F. 4. Bruno Rodrigues 15. Carraca 7. Delgado J. 71. Joao Pedro 10. Pina R. 3. Romero A. 29. Tounkara M. 1. Vozinha (G)	60. Danny 22. Faria B. 7. Martins R. 28. Mesquita T. 24. Mimito 9. Silva J. 23. Sousa M. (G) 88. Teixeira M. 77. Tiago Dias
Coaches
Martins F.	Miguel Pedro

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Pereira M. ⚽, Arsenio (A),
17', Pinho P. 🟨,
30', Alves R. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Roberto ⚽, Kusso D. (A),
45', Collard D. ↓, Faria B. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Esajas R. ↓, Delgado J. ↑,
46', Pinho P. ↓, Bikoro F. ↑,
54', Rocha L. 🟨,
57', Muscat Z. 🟨,
69', Joao Vasco ↓, Silva J. ↑,
69', Platiny ↓, Martins R. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Tiago Almeida ⚽,
74', Joao Teixeira 🟨,
78', Rocha L. ↓, Danny ↑,
78', Silverio ↓, Teixeira M. ↑,
80', Bikoro F. 🟨,
82', 2 - 2, Martins R. ⚽,
85', Roberto ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
86', Kusso D. ↓, Romero A. ↑,
86', Muscat Z. ↓, Carraca ↑,
90+1', Danny 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 and 9).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Chaves may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Chaves is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Chaves won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lusitania FC	6	5	1	0	11:4	7	16
16	Chaves	6	1	1	4	5:13	-8	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
17.01.26	Benfica B - Chaves	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Chaves - Marítimo	2:3 ✺
20.12.25	Chaves - Portimonense	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Oliveirense - Chaves	2:3 ✺
07.12.25	Chaves - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLWW
- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
18.01.26	Lusitânia - Marítimo	0:4 ✺
08.01.26	Lusitânia - Leixões	2:2 ✺
30.12.25	Torreense - Lusitânia	0:1 ✺
22.12.25	Lusitânia - Oliveirense	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Lusitânia	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
16.08.25	Lusitânia - Chaves	2:2
Taça de Portugal
20.10.24	Chaves - Lusitânia	2:0

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