Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 12

Date: 7 November 2022, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Chaves (Chaves)

Referee: Costa B. J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport


	Chaves		Santa Clara

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.3	3	3.2
	2.32	2.95	3.35
	2.35	3.05	3.15
	2.44	3.08	3.41
	2.3	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.3	3.16	3.24	Watch
	2.4	3.1	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.33)	3.07 ↓ (3.23)	3.25 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
40.3%

Draw
30.7%

Santa Clara
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

29%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

29.1%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Santa Clara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.7%	28.8%	13.5%

Chaves - Santa Clara Predictions

Users Predictions: 52 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 30 - 57.7%). Santa Clara will win (votes: 7 - 13.5%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 28.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chaves: 44.3% – 71.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 12 and 15).

Chaves has the most likely position - 8 (9.15%), has project points - 44, has currently - 15, has a very small chance of relegated (5%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 47, small importance 24, match rating 35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chaves won 2.

Recent matches Chaves is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Santa Clara is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Chaves will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Chaves: Langa B. A. (Injury) Obiora N. (Injury) Sarr S. (Injury)

There will not play in Santa Clara: Costinha (Achilles Tendon Injury) Henrique P. (Injury) Jordao B. (Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Chaves won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Chaves won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Liga Portugal
29.10.22	Benfica - Chaves	5:0 ✺
23.10.22	Chaves - Gil Vicente	3:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
16.10.22	Valadares Gaia - Chaves	3:2 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
09.10.22	Braga - Chaves	0:1 ✺
01.10.22	Chaves - Estoril Praia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 LWLWT
- CD Santa Clara
Liga Portugal
29.10.22	Santa Clara - Porto	1:1 ✺
23.10.22	Vizela - Santa Clara	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
15.10.22	Tondela - Santa Clara	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.10.22	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
02.10.22	Rio Ave - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese League Cup
04.10.19	Chaves - Santa Clara	1:0
Liga Portugal
03.03.19	Chaves - Santa Clara	0:0
Taça de Portugal
25.11.18	Santa Clara - Chaves	1:2
Liga Portugal
05.10.18	Santa Clara - Chaves	1:0
Taça de Portugal
19.11.17	Santa Clara - Chaves	2:0
Portuguese Liga 2
17.02.16	Santa Clara - Chaves	2:2
16.09.15	Chaves - Santa Clara	1:0

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