Match Info

ENGLAND: NATIONAL LEAGUE SOUTH - ROUND 42

Date: 29 March 2024, Friday


	Chelmsford City		Dartford

	1	X	2
	1.47	4.1	5.25
	1.5	4.33	5.5
	1.53	4.2	5.78
	1.53	4.2	5.78
	1.5	4.2	5.77
	1.49	4.1	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.45)	4.19 ↓ (4.33)	5.58 ↓ (5.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelmsford City
61.4%

Draw
22%

Dartford
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.2%

21.2%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68%

19.7%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelmsford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Dartford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chelmsford City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dartford than the current prediction. (-2%)

Chelmsford City - Dartford Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Ruff C. ⚽,
41', 2 - 0, Alexander G. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
47', 2 - 1, Barzey B. ⚽,
80', 3 - 1, Alexander G. ⚽,
84', 4 - 1, Ruff C. ⚽,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 20).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chelmsford won 3.

Recent matches Chelmsford is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Dartford is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Chelmsford could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Chelmsford is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Chelmsford won 11 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 24-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Chelmsford won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelmsford City
English National League South
23.03.24	Taunton Town - Chelmsford City	2:3 ✺
16.03.24	Chelmsford City - Bath City	3:1 ✺
12.03.24	Maidstone United - Chelmsford City	2:0 ✺
09.03.24	Truro City - Chelmsford City	1:4 ✺
04.03.24	Chelmsford City - Worthing	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWLWL
- Dartford
English National League South
26.03.24	Truro City - Dartford	0:0 ✺
23.03.24	Dartford - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:1 ✺
16.03.24	Dartford - Maidstone United	0:2 ✺
12.03.24	Braintree Town - Dartford	2:0 ✺
09.03.24	Torquay United - Dartford	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
07.11.23	Dartford - Chelmsford City	1:2
25.03.23	Dartford - Chelmsford City	1:2
03.12.22	Chelmsford City - Dartford	1:0
15.03.22	Dartford - Chelmsford City	2:1
25.10.21	Chelmsford City - Dartford	0:0
06.10.20	Dartford - Chelmsford City	1:0
14.03.20	Dartford - Chelmsford City	3:0

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