Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Old Trafford (Manchester)

Referee: Bankes P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Arabia, beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, Star Sports 2 Asia, Star Sports 3 Asia, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League
Azerbaijan	Idman TV
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium, V Sport Ultra
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 7
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, RTL+, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Premier League
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 1, Now Sports Premier League TV
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
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India	Disney+ Hotstar, Star Sports 3, Star Sports Select 1
Indonesia	Vidio
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, SuperSport 2
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Astro Premier League, Astro Sports, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
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Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport 8, Sky Sport Premier League
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	Hub Premier 1, Hub Premier 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 1 Bar Espana, DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium, V Sport Ultra
Switzerland	Sky Sport Premier League, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	BBC Radio 5 Live, NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fubo Sports Network, NBC Sports App, NBC Universo, NBC, SiriusXM FC, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW, USA Network
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Manchester United		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.75	2.5
	2.65	3.75	2.5
	2.7	3.73	2.6
	1.39	4.43	8.26	Watch
	2.88	3.5	2.3
	2.78	3.85	2.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.74)	3.84 ↑ (3.7)	3.43 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester United
42.1%

Draw
27.3%

Chelsea
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

25.8%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

26.6%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Manchester United's performance.

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chelsea might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Manchester United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chelsea could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25.6%	21.8%	52.6%

Manchester United - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: 76 users predict this event. Man Utd will win (votes: 20 - 26.3%). Chelsea will win (votes: 40 - 52.6%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 41.4% – 63.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 38 Selected Experts predict this event. Man Utd (votes: 8 - 21.1%). Chelsea (votes: 20 - 52.6%). Tie (votes: 10 - 26.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Chelsea (1.87) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DNB - Chelsea (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Chelsea (1.50) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

EH -1 - Chelsea (4.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 49 Selected Experts predict this event. Man Utd (votes: 9 - 18.4%). Chelsea (votes: 30 - 61.2%). Tie (votes: 10 - 20.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bayindir A. (G) 4. de Ligt M. 5. Maguire H. 23. Shaw L. 3. Mazraoui N. 18. Casemiro 8. Fernandes B. (C) 13. Dorgu P. 19. Mbeumo B. 16. Diallo A. 30. Sesko B.	1. Sanchez R. (G) 24. James R. (C) 29. Fofana W. 23. Chalobah T. 3. Cucurella M. 8. Fernandez E. 25. Caicedo M. 41. Estêvão 10. Palmer C. 7. Neto P. 20. Joao Pedro
Substitutes
10. Cunha M. 33. Fredricson T. 26. Heaven A. 31. Lammens S. (G) 37. Mainoo K. 7. Mount M. 25. Ugarte M. 15. Yoro L. 11. Zirkzee J.	4. Adarabioyo T. 17. Andrey Santos 49. Garnacho A. 32. George T. 11. Gittens J. 38. Guiu M. 27. Gusto M. 21. Hato J. 12. Jorgensen F. (G)
Coaches
Amorim R.	Maresca E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', Sanchez R. 🟥,
6', Estêvão ↓, Jorgensen F. ↑,
7', Neto P. ↓, Adarabioyo T. ↑,
14', 1 - 0, Fernandes B. ⚽, Dorgu P. (A),
17', Casemiro 🟨,
21', Palmer C. ↓, Andrey Santos ↑,
37', 2 - 0, Casemiro ⚽, Maguire H. (A),
44', Cucurella M. 🟨,
45+5', Casemiro 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sesko B. ↓, Ugarte M. ↑,
48', Fernandez E. 🟨,
50', Chalobah T. 🟨,
64', Fofana W. ↓, George T. ↑,
64', Cucurella M. ↓, Gusto M. ↑,
65', Mazraoui N. ↓, Cunha M. ↑,
69', Mbeumo B. ↓, Mount M. ↑,
70', Maguire H. ↓, Yoro L. ↑,
72', George T. 🟨,
80', 2 - 1, Chalobah T. ⚽, James R. (A),
87', Fernandes B. ↓, Mainoo K. ↑,
90+6', Adarabioyo T. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man Utd won 2.

Man Utd has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Chelsea's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chelsea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Man Utd: Martinez Li. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Chelsea: Badiashile B. (Knock) Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Delap L. (Hamstring Injury) Essugo D. (Thigh Injury) Lavia R. (Muscle Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Man Utd: Dalot D. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Man Utd won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 29:21. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Man Utd won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:9. (average 1.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester United
English Premier League
14.09.25	Manchester City - Manchester United	3:0 ✺
30.08.25	Manchester United - Burnley	3:2 ✺
English League Cup
27.08.25	Grimsby Town - Manchester United	3:2 penalties ✺
English Premier League
24.08.25	Fulham - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Manchester United - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWLTL
- Chelsea
UEFA Champions League
17.09.25	Bayern Munich - Chelsea	3:1 ✺
English Premier League
13.09.25	Brentford - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Chelsea - Fulham	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	West Ham United - Chelsea	1:5 ✺
17.08.25	Chelsea - Crystal Palace	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
16.05.25	Chelsea - Manchester United	1:0
03.11.24	Manchester United - Chelsea	1:1
04.04.24	Chelsea - Manchester United	4:3
06.12.23	Manchester United - Chelsea	2:1
25.05.23	Manchester United - Chelsea	4:1
22.10.22	Chelsea - Manchester United	1:1
28.04.22	Manchester United - Chelsea	1:1

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