Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 17 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Allianz Arena (Munich)

Referee: Sanchez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bayern Munich		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	1.75	4	4.33
	1.78	4	4.4
	1.75	4.45	4.2
	1.96	3.67	3.57	Watch
	1.67	4	4.5
	1.8	4.2	4.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.71)	4.05 ↓ (4.32)	4.25 ↓ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayern Munich
53.8%

Draw
23.7%

Chelsea
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

22.2%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

21%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayern Munich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayern Munich, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.9%	18.2%	10.9%

Bayern Munich - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Bayern will win (votes: 38 - 70.4%). Chelsea will win (votes: 6 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 18.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 58.2% – 82.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH -1 - Bayern (2.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Bayern (2.27) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.25, 1st Half - Chelsea (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Bayern (2.33) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Chelsea (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Chelsea (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (26 of 30 users predict this - 86.67%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 38 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayern (votes: 31 - 81.6%). Chelsea (votes: 4 - 10.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 7.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neuer M. (C) 27. Laimer K. 2. Upamecano D. 4. Tah J. 44. Stanisic J. 6. Kimmich J. 45. Pavlovic A. 17. Olise M. 7. Gnabry S. 14. Diaz L. 9. Kane H.	1. Sanchez R. (G) 27. Gusto M. 4. Adarabioyo T. 23. Chalobah T. 3. Cucurella M. 24. James R. (C) 25. Caicedo M. 7. Neto P. 8. Fernandez E. 10. Palmer C. 20. Joao Pedro
Substitutes
20. Bischof T. 23. Boey S. 47. Daiber D. 8. Goretzka L. 11. Jackson N. 42. Karl L. 30. Kiala C. 3. Kim Min-Jae 26. Ulreich S. (G) 40. Urbig J. (G)	34. Acheampong J. 17. Andrey Santos 40. Buonanotte F. 35. Curd T. (G) 41. Estêvão 29. Fofana W. 49. Garnacho A. 32. George T. 11. Gittens J. 38. Guiu M. 21. Hato J. 12. Jorgensen F. (G)
Coaches
Kompany V.	Maresca E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Chalobah T. (Own goal), Olise M. (A),
27', 2 - 0, Kane H. (Pen),
29', 2 - 1, Palmer C. ⚽, Gusto M. (A),
29', Tah J. 🟨,
29', Maresca E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Tah J. ↓, Kim Min-Jae ↑,
51', Stanisic J. ↓, Boey S. ↑,
63', 3 - 1, Kane H. ⚽,
64', Pavlovic A. ↓, Goretzka L. ↑,
68', Neto P. ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
68', James R. ↓, Andrey Santos ↑,
81', Fernandez E. ↓, Estêvão ↑,
85', Olise M. 🟨,
86', Laimer K. 🟨,
90+1', Gnabry S. ↓, Bischof T. ↑,
90+1', Kane H. ↓, Jackson N. ↑,
90+6', Andrey Santos 🟨,

Preview

Bayern has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Chelsea is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Bayern is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Bayern: Davies A. (Knee Injury) Guerreiro R. (Abdominal strain) Ito H. (Foot Injury) Musiala J. (Broken calfbone)

There will not play in Chelsea: Badiashile B. (Knock) Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Delap L. (Hamstring Injury) Essugo D. (Thigh Injury) Lavia R. (Muscle Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended) Sterling R. (Inactive)

We predict that Bayern will win today's game, with odds of 1.75.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayern won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:5. (average 2.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayern won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 2.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Bayern Munich - Hamburger SV	5:0 ✺
30.08.25	Augsburg - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
27.08.25	Wehen Wiesbaden - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
22.08.25	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	6:0 ✺
German Super Cup
16.08.25	Stuttgart - Bayern Munich	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWWW
- Chelsea
English Premier League
13.09.25	Brentford - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Chelsea - Fulham	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	West Ham United - Chelsea	1:5 ✺
17.08.25	Chelsea - Crystal Palace	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Chelsea - Milan	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
08.08.20	Bayern Munich - Chelsea	4:1
25.02.20	Chelsea - Bayern Munich	0:3
International Champions Cup
25.07.17	Chelsea - Bayern Munich	2:3
UEFA Super Cup
30.08.13	Bayern Munich - Chelsea	3:2 penalties
UEFA Champions League
19.05.12	Bayern Munich - Chelsea	N/A

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