Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stamford Bridge (London) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 4, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, FOX Sports
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 5
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 5
Brazil	16:00	Claro TV+, HBO Max, SBT, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	15:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	16:00	ESPN Premium
China	03:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:00	ESPN 2
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 3
Germany	21:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Sport 1
Iceland	19:00	SÝN Sport 3, Viaplay
India	00:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Iran	22:30	IRIB Varzesh
Ireland	20:00	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Italy	21:00	Sky Sport 254
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Mexico	13:00	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan Sports 2
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
North Macedonia	21:00	TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	00:00	Tapmad
Peru	14:00	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 2
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV5
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Singapore	03:00	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
South Africa	21:00	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Variety 3
South America	—	ESPN South, Space Latin America, ViX Latin America
South Korea	04:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 3
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	22:00	Tabii, TRT Spor
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	20:00	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	02:00	ON Plus


	Chelsea		Benfica

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	5.25
	1.68	4.15	5.05
	1.7	4.09	5.14
	1.11	6.71	86.20	Watch
	1.68	4.2	5.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.55)	4.63 ↑ (4.42)	21.42 ↑ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
71%

Draw
23.9%

Benfica
5.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

61.8%

21.6%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

23.7%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chelsea's performance.

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Benfica might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Benfica could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.7%	15%	13.3%

Chelsea - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 58 users predict this event. Chelsea will win (votes: 42 - 72.4%). Benfica will win (votes: 7 - 12.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 15.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 60.9% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 16 - 61.5%). Benfica (votes: 4 - 15.4%). Tie (votes: 6 - 23.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - Chelsea (4.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +0.5 - Benfica (2.28) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 17 - 58.6%). Benfica (votes: 6 - 20.7%). Tie (votes: 6 - 20.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sanchez R. (G) 27. Gusto M. 23. Chalobah T. 5. Badiashile B. 3. Cucurella M. 8. Fernandez E. (C) 25. Caicedo M. 7. Neto P. 40. Buonanotte F. 49. Garnacho A. 32. George T.	1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 20. Rios R. 5. Barrenechea E. 11. Lukebakio D. 8. Aursnes F. 10. Sudakov G. 14. Pavlidis V.
Substitutes
34. Acheampong J. 41. Estêvão 11. Gittens J. 38. Guiu M. 21. Hato J. 24. James R. 20. Joao Pedro 12. Jorgensen F. (G) 45. Lavia R. 50. Merrick M. (G) 46. Walsh R.	39. Araujo H. 44. Araujo T. 18. Barreiro L. 50. Ferreira D. (G) 9. Ivanovic F. 3. Obrador R. 64. Oliveira G. 86. Prioste D. 84. Rego J. 21. Schjelderup A. 24. Soares S. (G) 68. Veloso J.
Coaches
Maresca E.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Rios R. (Own goal), Garnacho A. (A),
34', Barrenechea E. 🟨,
45+1', Fernandez E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Buonanotte F. 🟨,
49', Rios R. 🟨,
54', Buonanotte F. ↓, Estêvão ↑,
61', George T. ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
61', Garnacho A. ↓, Gittens J. ↑,
62', Joao Pedro 🟨,
64', Aursnes F. 🟨,
73', Silva A. ↓, Araujo T. ↑,
77', Lukebakio D. ↓, Schjelderup A. ↑,
77', Sudakov G. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
77', Rios R. ↓, Barreiro L. ↑,
80', Gusto M. ↓, James R. ↑,
80', Badiashile B. ↓, Acheampong J. ↑,
83', Otamendi N. 🟨,
88', Neto P. 🟨,
89', Aursnes F. ↓, Araujo H. ↑,
90+3', Mourinho J. 🟨,
90+6', Joao Pedro 🟨,

Preview

Chelsea is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Benfica's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Benfica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Chelsea has had a series of away games.

Recently, Benfica has had a series of home games.

In this match, Chelsea is the team to beat.

There will not play in Chelsea: Adarabioyo T. (Calf Injury) Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Delap L. (Hamstring Injury) Essugo D. (Thigh Injury) Fofana W. (Concussion) Mudryk M. (Suspended) Palmer C. (Groin Injury) Sterling R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Manu (Knee Injury) Prestianni G. (International duty) Wynder J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Andrey Santos (Injury) Caicedo M. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 2.3:0.8).

Including home match between the teams, Chelsea won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Chelsea - the odds 1.55 are the expected chance of winning is 61.77%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English Premier League
27.09.25	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:3 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.25	Lincoln City - Chelsea	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
20.09.25	Manchester United - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.25	Bayern Munich - Chelsea	3:1 ✺
English Premier League
13.09.25	Brentford - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LWLLT
- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
26.09.25	Benfica - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
23.09.25	Benfica - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	AVS - Benfica	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Benfica - Qarabağ Agdam	2:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
12.09.25	Benfica - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

FIFA Club World Cup
28.06.25	Benfica - Chelsea	1:4 ET
UEFA Europa League
15.05.13	Benfica - Chelsea	1:2
UEFA Champions League
04.04.12	Chelsea - Benfica	2:1

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