Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stamford Bridge (London)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Chelsea		Benfica

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	5.25
	1.68	4.15	5.05
	1.7	4.09	5.14
	1.11	6.71	86.20	Watch
	1.68	4.2	5.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.55)	4.63 ↑ (4.42)	21.42 ↑ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
71%

Draw
23.9%

Benfica
5.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.8%

21.6%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

23.7%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chelsea's performance.

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Benfica might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Benfica could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.7%	15%	13.3%

Chelsea - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 58 users predict this event. Chelsea will win (votes: 42 - 72.4%). Benfica will win (votes: 7 - 12.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 15.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 60.9% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 16 - 61.5%). Benfica (votes: 4 - 15.4%). Tie (votes: 6 - 23.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - Chelsea (4.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +0.5 - Benfica (2.28) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 17 - 58.6%). Benfica (votes: 6 - 20.7%). Tie (votes: 6 - 20.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sanchez R. (G) 27. Gusto M. 23. Chalobah T. 5. Badiashile B. 3. Cucurella M. 8. Fernandez E. (C) 25. Caicedo M. 7. Neto P. 40. Buonanotte F. 49. Garnacho A. 32. George T.	1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 20. Rios R. 5. Barrenechea E. 11. Lukebakio D. 8. Aursnes F. 10. Sudakov G. 14. Pavlidis V.
Substitutes
34. Acheampong J. 41. Estêvão 11. Gittens J. 38. Guiu M. 21. Hato J. 24. James R. 20. Joao Pedro 12. Jorgensen F. (G) 45. Lavia R. 50. Merrick M. (G) 46. Walsh R.	39. Araujo H. 44. Araujo T. 18. Barreiro L. 50. Ferreira D. (G) 9. Ivanovic F. 3. Obrador R. 64. Oliveira G. 86. Prioste D. 84. Rego J. 21. Schjelderup A. 24. Soares S. (G) 68. Veloso J.
Coaches
Maresca E.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Rios R. (Own goal), Garnacho A. (A),
34', Barrenechea E. 🟨,
45+1', Fernandez E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Buonanotte F. 🟨,
49', Rios R. 🟨,
54', Buonanotte F. ↓, Estêvão ↑,
61', George T. ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
61', Garnacho A. ↓, Gittens J. ↑,
62', Joao Pedro 🟨,
64', Aursnes F. 🟨,
73', Silva A. ↓, Araujo T. ↑,
77', Lukebakio D. ↓, Schjelderup A. ↑,
77', Sudakov G. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
77', Rios R. ↓, Barreiro L. ↑,
80', Gusto M. ↓, James R. ↑,
80', Badiashile B. ↓, Acheampong J. ↑,
83', Otamendi N. 🟨,
88', Neto P. 🟨,
89', Aursnes F. ↓, Araujo H. ↑,
90+3', Mourinho J. 🟨,
90+6', Joao Pedro 🟨,

Preview

Chelsea is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Benfica's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Benfica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Chelsea has had a series of away games.

Recently, Benfica has had a series of home games.

In this match, Chelsea is the team to beat.

There will not play in Chelsea: Adarabioyo T. (Calf Injury) Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Delap L. (Hamstring Injury) Essugo D. (Thigh Injury) Fofana W. (Concussion) Mudryk M. (Suspended) Palmer C. (Groin Injury) Sterling R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Manu (Knee Injury) Prestianni G. (International duty) Wynder J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Andrey Santos (Injury) Caicedo M. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 2.3:0.8).

Including home match between the teams, Chelsea won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Chelsea - the odds 1.55 are the expected chance of winning is 61.77%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English Premier League
27.09.25	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:3 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.25	Lincoln City - Chelsea	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
20.09.25	Manchester United - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.25	Bayern Munich - Chelsea	3:1 ✺
English Premier League
13.09.25	Brentford - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LWLLT
- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
26.09.25	Benfica - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
23.09.25	Benfica - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	AVS - Benfica	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Benfica - Qarabağ Agdam	2:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
12.09.25	Benfica - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

FIFA Club World Cup
28.06.25	Benfica - Chelsea	1:4 ET
UEFA Europa League
15.05.13	Benfica - Chelsea	1:2
UEFA Champions League
04.04.12	Chelsea - Benfica	2:1

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