Match Info

FA Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Racecourse Ground (Wrexham)

Referee: Bankes P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Wrexham		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	5	4.1	1.57
	6.25	5	1.44
	5.4	4.25	1.58
	5.46	4.3	1.61
	5.72	4.65	1.56
	4.8	3.9	1.57
	5.43	4.23	1.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.44 ↓ (6.35)	4.35 ↓ (4.83)	1.57 ↑ (1.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wrexham
17.5%

Draw
21.9%

Chelsea
60.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.8%

19.4%

65.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.6%

21.1%

71.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wrexham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chelsea might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wrexham than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chelsea could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Wrexham - Chelsea Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Wrexham (5.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Chelsea (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Chelsea (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Chelsea will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chelsea will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Wrexham (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Chelsea (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Okonkwo A. (G) 4. Cleworth M. 5. Hyam D. (C) 2. Doyle C. 47. Longman R. 26. Vyner Z. 15. Dobson G. 14. Thomason G. 20. Rathbone O. 28. Smith S. 27. O'Brien L.	1. Sanchez R. (G) 19. Sarr M. 4. Adarabioyo T. (C) 5. Badiashile B. 34. Acheampong J. 17. Andrey Santos 45. Lavia R. 21. Hato J. 7. Neto P. 49. Garnacho A. 9. Delap L.
Substitutes
29. Barnett R. 33. Broadhead N. 3. Brunt L. 7. Keillor-Dunn D. 19. Moore K. 16. Rodriguez J. 24. Scarr D. 21. Ward D. (G) 10. Windass J.	23. Chalobah T. 3. Cucurella M. 55. Derry J. 14. Essugo D. 38. Guiu M. 27. Gusto M. 24. James R. 20. Joao Pedro 28. Sharman-Lowe T. (G)
Coaches
Parkinson P.	Rosenior L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', 1 - 0, Smith S. ⚽, Doyle C. (A),
23', Lavia R. 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Okonkwo A. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Sarr M. ↓, Guiu M. ↑,
65', Hato J. ↓, Cucurella M. ↑,
65', Lavia R. ↓, Essugo D. ↑,
66', Smith S. ↓, Moore K. ↑,
66', Rathbone O. ↓, Windass J. ↑,
76', Vyner Z. ↓, Broadhead N. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Doyle C. ⚽, Windass J. (A),
82', 2 - 2, Acheampong J. ⚽,
85', Delap L. ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
85', Acheampong J. ↓, Gusto M. ↑,
90+3', Dobson G. 🟥,
Extra Time (0 - 2)
96', 2 - 3, Garnacho A. ⚽, Essugo D. (A),
100', Neto P. ↓, Derry J. ↑,
101', Thomason G. 🟨,
106', Doyle C. ↓, Brunt L. ↑,
110', Andrey Santos 🟨,
112', Cleworth M. ↓, Keillor-Dunn D. ↑,
120', Moore K. 🟨,
120', Garnacho A. 🟨,
120+5', 2 - 4, Joao Pedro ⚽, Essugo D. (A),

Preview

Wrexham has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Chelsea has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Wrexham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Chelsea is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Wrexham: Brunt L. (Thigh Injury) Cacace L. (Injury) James A. (Injury) James M. (Inactive) O'Connor T. (Injury) Sheaf B. (Injury)

There will not play in Chelsea: Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Essugo D. (Injury) Estêvão (Muscle Injury) Gittens J. (Muscle Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Fofana W. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Wrexham won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:7. (average 1:3.5).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Chelsea: 7.55% Wrexham: 0.51%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wrexham AFC
English League Championship
28.02.26	Charlton Athletic - Wrexham	0:1 ✺
24.02.26	Wrexham - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Wrexham - Ipswich Town	5:3 ✺
17.02.26	Bristol City - Wrexham	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
13.02.26	Wrexham - Ipswich Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.2 WWWTW
- Chelsea
English Premier League
04.03.26	Aston Villa - Chelsea	1:4 ✺
01.03.26	Arsenal - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Chelsea - Burnley	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
13.02.26	Hull City - Chelsea	0:4 ✺
English Premier League
10.02.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
24.07.24	Chelsea - Wrexham	2:2
19.07.23	Chelsea - Wrexham	5:0

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