The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Cheltenham Town 34.9%
Draw 26.6%
Carlisle United 38.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
41.5%
26.8%
31.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.5%
26.8%
31.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cheltenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cheltenham Town's form might have worsened.
Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carlisle United's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cheltenham Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-6.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carlisle United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
20%
20%
60%
Cheltenham Town - Carlisle United Predictions
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Cheltenham will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Carlisle will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%). Confidence interval (95%) for Carlisle: 29.6% – 90.4%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Carlisle United will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
21. Day J. (G) 2. Jude-Boyd A. 25. Stubbs S. 6. Bradbury T. 3. Haynes R. 15. Thomas J. 4. Kinsella L. (C) 22. Archer E. 26. Backwell T. 14. Dulson L. 11. Hay A.
13. Breeze G. (G) 18. Ellis J. 6. Hayden A. 4. Thomas T. (C) 3. Harper C. 45. Fusire S. 39. Wearne S. 43. Whelan C. 40. Harris K. 19. Dennis M. 9. Kelly G.
Substitutes
18. Bakare I. 41. Diallo M. (G) 5. Dieng T. 10. Miller G. 24. Power D. 9. Taylor M. 16. Williams E.
26. Barclay B. 37. Bevan J. 14. Dummett P. 44. Embleton E. 17. Hugill J. 1. Lewis H. (G) 16. Vela J.
Coaches
Flynn M.
Hughes M
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 1)
6', Dennis M. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Dennis M. ⚽,
32', Breeze G. 🟨,
33', 1 - 1, Thomas J. (Pen),
33', Hayden A. 🟨,
45', 2 - 1, Hay A. ⚽, Archer E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', Haynes R. ↓, Power D. ↑,
59', Dulson L. ↓, Miller G. ↑,
59', Backwell T. ↓, Dieng T. ↑,
68', Ellis J. ↓, Vela J. ↑,
68', Wearne S. ↓, Embleton E. ↑,
74', 2 - 2, Kelly G. ⚽, Embleton E. (A),
78', Bradbury T. ↓, Bakare I. ↑,
79', Hay A. ↓, Taylor M. ↑,
79', Fusire S. ↓, Hugill J. ↑,
79', Harper C. ↓, Dummett P. ↑,
82', Jude-Boyd A. 🟨,
90+3', 3 - 2, Miller G. ⚽, Taylor M. (A),
Preview
This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 16 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Cheltenham won 3.
Recent matches Cheltenham is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Carlisle is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Carlisle could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.
There will not play in Cheltenham: Pell H.
(Knee Injury)
Power D.
(Hamstring Injury)
Young L.
(Injury)
There will not play in Carlisle: Davies A.
(Injury)
Dummett P.
(Hamstring Injury)
Jones J.
(Inactive)
McGeouch D.
(Inactive)
Williams J.
(Injury)
Wyke Ch.
(Broken ankle)
There are questionable in Cheltenham: Bowman R.
(Inactive)
Last 15 head-to-head matches Cheltenham won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 10:12 (average 0.7:0.8).
Including matches at home between the teams Cheltenham won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:4 (average 0.6:0.6).
Last Results with these Odds
Carlisle United - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 31.62%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.
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Day J. (G) 
Jude-Boyd A. 
Kinsella L. (C) 
Harper C. 
Dieng T. 
Dummett P. 
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