Match Info

League Two - Round 44

Date: 21 April 2025, Monday

Location: The Wham Stadium (Accrington)

Referee: Coy M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Accrington Stanley		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	3.1	Watch
	2.3	3.3	3
	2.25	3.5	3	Watch
	2.29	3.51	3.07
	2.3	3.38	2.99	Watch
	2.38	3.2	3
	2.3	3.42	2.99	Watch
	2.25	3.5	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.41)	3.39 ↑ (3.29)	3.02 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Accrington Stanley
41.1%

Draw
27.7%

Carlisle United
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

28.5%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

28.3%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Accrington Stanley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Accrington Stanley than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Accrington will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Carlisle will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Accrington: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Carlisle (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Carlisle (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Carlisle (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Carlisle (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kelly M. (G) 24. Aljofree S. 17. Matthews D. 14. Ward B. 2. Love D. 6. Coyle L. 4. Grant C. 8. Woods B. 23. Walton T. 7. Whalley S. (C) 39. Woods J.	13. Breeze G. (G) 18. Ellis J. 6. Hayden A. 4. Thomas T. (C) 3. Harper C. 45. Fusire S. 39. Wearne S. 43. Whelan C. 40. Harris K. 17. Hugill J. 9. Kelly G.
Substitutes
20. Brown C. 18. Caton C. 10. Henderson A. 30. Isherwood L. (G) 9. Mooney K. 43. O'Brien Whitmarsh J. 12. Quirk S.	26. Barclay B. 37. Bevan J. 44. Embleton E. 8. Guy C. 1. Lewis H. (G) 22. McArthur C. 16. Vela J.
Coaches
Doolan J.	Hughes M

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
62', Woods J. ↓, O'Brien Whitmarsh J. ↑,
69', 1 - 0, Aljofree S. ⚽, Woods B. (A),
70', Fusire S. ↓, Vela J. ↑,
70', Wearne S. ↓, Embleton E. ↑,
76', Whalley S. ↓, Mooney K. ↑,
77', Hugill J. ↓, Bevan J. ↑,
86', Walton T. ↓, Caton C. ↑,
87', Ellis J. ↓, Barclay B. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 1, Whelan C. ⚽, Kelly G. (A),
90+3', Love D. 🟨,
90+4', Hayden A. 🟨,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 21 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Accrington won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Accrington: Rich-Baghuelou J. (Injury)

There will not play in Carlisle: Davies A. (Injury) Dennis M. (Red Card) Dummett P. (Hamstring Injury) Jones J. (Inactive) McGeouch D. (Inactive) Williams J. (Injury) Wyke Ch. (Broken ankle)

There are questionable in Accrington: Conneely S. (Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Accrington won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 13:15 (average 1.2:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Accrington won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:6 (average 1.7:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Accrington Stanley - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 38.84%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Carlisle United - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 32.67%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Accrington Stanley
English League Two
18.04.25	Salford City - Accrington Stanley	1:2 ✺
12.04.25	Accrington Stanley - Tranmere Rovers	3:3 ✺
05.04.25	Bromley - Accrington Stanley	4:0 ✺
01.04.25	Accrington Stanley - Fleetwood Town	1:4 ✺
29.03.25	Accrington Stanley - Bradford City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WTLLT
- Carlisle United
English League Two
18.04.25	Carlisle United - Port Vale	3:2 ✺
12.04.25	Morecambe - Carlisle United	0:2 ✺
05.04.25	Carlisle United - Newport County	3:2 ✺
01.04.25	Chesterfield - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Doncaster Rovers - Carlisle United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
29.12.24	Carlisle United - Accrington Stanley	2:1
English EFL Trophy
05.09.23	Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United	1:0
English League Two
26.12.17	Carlisle United - Accrington Stanley	3:1
09.09.17	Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United	3:0
21.01.17	Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United	1:1
03.09.16	Carlisle United - Accrington Stanley	1:1
16.02.16	Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United	1:1

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