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Current Win Probability
Carlisle United 24.6%
Draw 27.2%
Port Vale 48.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
33.1%
28.2%
38.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
33.2%
28.3%
38.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carlisle United's form might have worsened.
Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Port Vale's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+8.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carlisle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-9.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Port Vale, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
20%
0%
80%
Carlisle United - Port Vale Predictions
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Port Vale will win (votes: 4 - 80%).
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Port Vale will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Breeze G. (G) 18. Ellis J. 6. Hayden A. 4. Thomas T. (C) 3. Harper C. 45. Fusire S. 43. Whelan C. 40. Harris K. 39. Wearne S. 19. Dennis M. 9. Kelly G.
13. Amos B. (G) 22. Debrah J. 6. Smith N. 5. Hall C. 38. Walters R. 2. Clark M. 8. Garrity B. (C) 18. Croasdale R. 23. Shorrock J. 19. Tolaj L. 9. Stockley J.
Substitutes
26. Barclay B. 37. Bevan J. 8. Guy C. 17. Hugill J. 1. Lewis H. (G) 22. McArthur C. 16. Vela J.
40. Broome N. (G) 7. Byers G. 11. Curtis R. 42. Hart S. 16. Lowe J. 26. Richards R. 37. Umolu J.
Coaches
Hughes M
Moore D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Kelly G. ⚽, Fusire S. (A),
43', 2 - 0, Dennis M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Walters R. ↓, Byers G. ↑,
46', Shorrock J. ↓, Hart S. ↑,
49', 3 - 0, Hayden A. ⚽,
61', 3 - 1, Stockley J. ⚽, Garrity B. (A),
68', Byers G. 🟨,
70', 3 - 2, Hart S. ⚽,
77', Garrity B. ↓, Curtis R. ↑,
79', Wearne S. 🟨,
84', Fusire S. ↓, Guy C. ↑,
85', Dennis M. 🟨,
85', Dennis M. ↓, Hugill J. ↑,
86', Hayden A. 🟨,
87', Hall C. ↓, Richards R. ↑,
90', Wearne S. ↓, Vela J. ↑,
90+2', Thomas T. 🟨,
90+3', Tolaj L. (Pen),
90+4', Dennis M. 🟨,
90+4', Barclay B. 🟨,
Preview
This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 1.
Recent matches Carlisle is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Port Vale is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Port Vale will have a poor advantage in this game.
There will not play in Carlisle: Davies A.
(Injury)
Dummett P.
(Hamstring Injury)
Jones J.
(Inactive)
McGeouch D.
(Inactive)
Williams J.
(Injury)
Wyke Ch.
(Broken ankle)
There will not play in Port Vale: Heneghan B.
(Inactive)
Kyle John
(Inactive)
Sang T.
(Injury)
There are questionable in Port Vale: Headley J.
(Muscle Injury)
Last 16 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 14:16 (average 0.9:1).
Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8:9 (average 1.1:1.3).
United-kingdom
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Breeze G. (G) 
Thomas T. (C) 
Harper C. 
Kelly G. 
Clark M. 
Tolaj L. 
Moore D. 
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