Match Info

League Two - Round 41

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Ricardo R. (Eng)


	Carlisle United		Newport County

	1	X	2
	1.67	4.1	4.2	Watch
	1.75	3.7	4.33
	1.68	4	4.75	Watch
	1.74	3.84	4.37	Watch
	1.75	3.75	4.6
	1.71	3.92	4.54	Watch
	1.68	4	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.74)	3.9 ↑ (3.69)	4.51 ↑ (4.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
55%

Draw
24.1%

Newport County
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

25.3%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

24.7%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

The chances for Newport County have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Carlisle United - Newport County Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Newport will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newport: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Newport (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Newport (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Newport (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Breeze G. (G) 2. Davies A. 6. Hayden A. 4. Thomas T. (C) 18. Ellis J. 43. Whelan C. 16. Vela J. 45. Fusire S. 39. Wearne S. 9. Kelly G. 40. Harris K.	1. Townsend N. (G) 26. Evans C. 5. Clarke J. (C) 4. Baker M. 12. Thomas J. 19. McLoughlin S. 11. Antwi C. 17. Evans K. 3. Driscoll-Glennon A. 7. Kamwa B. 44. Ajiboye D.
Substitutes
26. Barclay B. 37. Bevan J. 19. Dennis M. 8. Guy C. 17. Hugill J. 1. Lewis H. (G) 22. McArthur C.	37. Bony G. 6. Brennan C. 8. Martin J. 38. Patten K. 21. Spellman M. 36. Webb L. (G) 14. Whitmore K.
Coaches
Hughes M	Jardim N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
24', Davies A. ↓, McArthur C. ↑,
26', 0 - 1, Evans K. ⚽, Kamwa B. (A),
28', 0 - 2, Kamwa B. ⚽,
33', 1 - 2, Kelly G. ⚽, Wearne S. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', Vela J. ↓, Dennis M. ↑,
60', 2 - 2, Kelly G. ⚽,
67', Ajiboye D. ↓, Martin J. ↑,
71', Evans K. ↓, Whitmore K. ↑,
75', Hayden A. 🟨,
75', Martin J. 🟨,
80', Wearne S. ↓, Hugill J. ↑,
80', Fusire S. ↓, Bevan J. ↑,
84', 3 - 2, Hayden A. ⚽,
90+2', Dennis M. 🟨,
90+4', Bevan J. 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 17).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 1.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Newport could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Carlisle is a favorite.

There will not play in Carlisle: Dummett P. (Hamstring Injury) Embleton E. (Red Card) Jones J. (Inactive) McGeouch D. (Inactive) Williams J. (Injury) Wyke Ch. (Broken ankle)

There will not play in Newport: Hudlin K. (Calf Injury) Jameson K. (Injury) Wildig A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Carlisle: Fusire S. (Injury) Harper C. (Injury) Lavelle S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Newport: Davies T. (Hamstring Injury)

Last 19 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 23:27 (average 1.2:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 16:12 (average 1.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League Two
01.04.25	Chesterfield - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Doncaster Rovers - Carlisle United	3:0 ✺
25.03.25	Carlisle United - Milton Keynes Dons	2:2 ✺
22.03.25	Carlisle United - Bromley	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Carlisle United - AFC Wimbledon	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLTWL
- Newport County
English League Two
01.04.25	Newport County - Bromley	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Newport County - Notts County	0:2 ✺
22.03.25	Grimsby Town - Newport County	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Newport County - Harrogate Town	3:0 ✺
11.03.25	Accrington Stanley - Newport County	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
11.02.25	Newport County - Carlisle United	1:0
14.01.23	Carlisle United - Newport County	2:0
24.09.22	Newport County - Carlisle United	1:1
15.03.22	Carlisle United - Newport County	1:2
19.10.21	Newport County - Carlisle United	2:2
13.04.21	Newport County - Carlisle United	0:0
03.11.20	Carlisle United - Newport County	3:2

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