The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Cheltenham Town 37%
Draw 27.7%
Newport County 35.3%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
40%
27.7%
32.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
40.4%
28%
31.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cheltenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)
Newport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (+3.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (-3.7%)
Cheltenham Town - Newport County Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
23. Stanway W. (G) 3. Tomkinson J. 25. Sweeney P. 6. Wilson J. (C) 26. Shipley J. 7. Stevenson B. 33. Willcox F. 19. Evans J. 8. McCann C. 9. Otchere K. 18. Weimann A.
1. Wright J. (G) 22. Norman C. 5. Jenkins L. 4. Cameron K. (C) 12. Thomas J. 24. Dibley-Dias M. 6. Brennan C. 23. Adu Poku M. 10. Biggins H. 20. Bamba Y. 19. Garner G.
Substitutes
11. Bickerstaff J. 14. Broom R. 31. Diallo M. (G) 10. Miller G. 21. Nurse G. 20. Onukwuli F.
3. Davies T. 28. Etete K. 2. Evans C. 7. Evans K. 33. MacDonald S. (G) 34. Sassi D. 8. Smith M.
Coaches
Cotterill S.
Mullins H.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, McCann C. ⚽, Evans J. (A),
30', Garner G. 🟨,
34', Dibley-Dias M. ↓, Smith M. ↑,
38', Adu Poku M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Evans J. 🟨,
56', Otchere K. 🟨,
58', Smith M. 🟨,
61', Biggins H. (Penalty Awarded),
62', Garner G. ↓, Etete K. ↑,
65', McCann C. ↓, Broom R. ↑,
68', Otchere K. ↓, Bickerstaff J. ↑,
73', Evans J. ↓, Miller G. ↑,
81', Bamba Y. ↓, Evans K. ↑,
81', Thomas J. ↓, Davies T. ↑,
Preview
An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 5th in the Promotion - League Two Playoffs - Semi - finals and 12th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cheltenham won 5.
Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.
Newport could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
Confirmed absences for Cheltenham: Tomlinson J.
(Injury).
Confirmed absences for Newport: Crole J.
(Inactive)
Davies T.
(Inactive)
Doidge C.
(Injury)
Patten K.
(Inactive)
Pugh H.
(Inactive).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Cheltenham has recorded 9 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:24 (averaging 1.4:1.2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Cheltenham against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with 15:16 goals (averaging 1.5:1.6 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Cheltenham
13
6
3
4
22:22
0
21
10
Newport
14
4
6
4
20:17
3
18
Outrights of English League Two for now
Cheltenham: 2.17% Newport: 0.99%
Last Results with these Odds
Newport County - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 32.25%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
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Stanway W. (G) 
Tomkinson J. 
Sweeney P. 
Wilson J. (C) 
McCann C. 
Otchere K. 
Weimann A. 
Cameron K. (C) 
Dibley-Dias M. 
Bamba Y. 
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