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Current Win Probability
Chernomorets Novorossiysk 16.6%
Draw 25.3%
Rodina Moscow 58.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
20.1%
27.2%
52.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
20%
27%
53%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Chernomorets Novorossiysk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)
Rodina Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rodina Moscow's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (+3.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rodina Moscow than the current prediction. (-5.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rodina Moscow, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Rodina Moscow Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
73. Shtepa M. (G) 21. Chistyakov N. 98. Khubulov A. 88. Magomedov Z. 18. Nikolaev O. 3. Pliev Z. (C) 59. Syshchenko M. 8. Tarba Z. 77. Zarypbekov E. 10. Zhigulev I. 17. Zhilkin G.
13. Volkov S. (G) 18. Abdusalamov M. 80. Bessmertniy S. 49. Dyatlov I. 5. Egorychev A. 6. Fishchenko R. (C) 55. Krizan M. 9. Maksimenko A. 10. Reyna Y. 88. Sokol A. 99. Timoshenko I.
Substitutes
7. Antonov A. 9. Antsiperov D. 33. Khalilov M. 11. Konovalov I. 5. Krachkovskii A. 44. Kukharchuk I. 23. Matyusha M. (G) 31. Natabashvili G. (G) 19. Pomeshkin K. 91. Suslov K. 90. Sutugin I. 81. Tonevitskiy E.
7. Arce S. 1. Aydarov S. (G) 17. Bakaev S. 22. Beskibalniy A. 8. Cissoko K. 96. Gharibyan A. 77. Koryan A. 38. Musaev L. 71. Svinov I. (G) 23. Ushatov K. 21. Yudintsev G.
Coaches
Sarkisov E.
Diaz J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Maksimenko A. ⚽,
15', 0 - 2, Timoshenko I. ⚽,
25', Tarba Z. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Zhilkin G. ↓, Antonov A. ↑,
52', Dyatlov I. 🟨,
60', Abdusalamov M. ↓, Bakaev S. ↑,
61', Egorychev A. ↓, Ushatov K. ↑,
63', 0 - 3, Reyna Y. ⚽,
66', Syshchenko M. ↓, Suslov K. ↑,
67', Tarba Z. ↓, Krachkovskii A. ↑,
68', Bakaev S. 🟨,
70', Reyna Y. ↓, Koryan A. ↑,
80', 1 - 3, Khubulov A. (Penalty Awarded),
80', Magomedov Z. ↓, Konovalov I. ↑,
80', Timoshenko I. ↓, Gharibyan A. ↑,
82', Maksimenko A. ↓, Musaev L. ↑,
84', Zhigulev I. ↓, Antsiperov D. ↑,
87', Khubulov A. 🟨,
Preview
An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chernomorets won 1.
Chernomorets has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Rodina is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins โ 3).
In this match, Rodina is the team to beat.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Chernomorets won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.7:1.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Chernomorets won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).
Russia
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Shtepa M. (G) 
Zarypbekov E. 
Krizan M. 
Reyna Y. 
Arce S. 
Cissoko K. 
Gharibyan A. 
Diaz J. 
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