Match Info

Premier League - Round 12

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Fakel Stadium (Voronezh) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Abrosimov I. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Asia	—	Q Sport Asia
Russia	15:00	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Fakel		Rodina Moscow

	1	X	2
	2.13	3.44	3.68
	2.08	3.35	3.55
	2.18	3.53	3.67	Watch
	2.06	3.25	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (2.1)	3.39 ↑ (3.15)	3.58 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fakel
45.2%

Draw
28.1%

Rodina Moscow
26.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.1%

29.4%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

29.5%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fakel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Rodina Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rodina Moscow than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Fakel - Rodina Moscow Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Fakel will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Rodina will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Obukhov I. (G) 55. Todorovic D. 5. Gabaraev A. 40. Clayton Sampaio 53. Bardachev M. 10. Alshin I. (C) 97. Magomedov B. 23. Yakimov V. 8. Bagamaev A. 90. Koksharov A. 19. Pusi B.	13. Volkov S. (G) 2. Igor Silva 50. Rodrigo Becao 38. Musaev L. 26. Meshchaninov A. (C) 20. Machado D. 18. Abdusalamov M. 10. Reyna Y. 5. Egorychev A. 17. Bakaev S. 7. Onugkha G.
Substitutes
35. Dorovskikh V. (G) 22. El Mhassani H. 1. Frolkin D. (G) 99. Giorgobiani N. 9. Gnapi Dable A. 17. Kovalev A. 52. Netfullin R. 18. Simonov K. 7. Turishchev M. 20. Yurganov I. 44. Zhuravlev Y.	1. Aydarov S. (G) 80. Bessmertniy S. 95. Cissoko K. 6. Fishchenko R. 77. Gharibyan A. 3. Goglichidze L. 9. Maksimenko A. 75. Nade M. 8. Pozo I. 19. Tananeev D. 99. Timoshenko I. 23. Ushatov K.
Coaches
Rebko A.	Alba J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Koksharov A. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Onugkha G. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Todorovic D. ↓, Kovalev A. ↑,
58', Egorychev A. ↓, Pozo I. ↑,
60', Musaev L. 🟨,
61', Gabaraev A. 🟨,
63', Pusi B. ↓, Turishchev M. ↑,
63', Koksharov A. ↓, Gnapi Dable A. ↑,
67', Musaev L. ↓, Fishchenko R. ↑,
67', Abdusalamov M. ↓, Maksimenko A. ↑,
73', Magomedov B. ↓, Netfullin R. ↑,
76', Kovalev A. 🟨,
76', Fishchenko R. 🟨,
76', Onugkha G. 🟨,
83', Rodrigo Becao ↓, Gharibyan A. ↑,
84', Bakaev S. ↓, Tananeev D. ↑,
87', Yakimov V. ↓, Giorgobiani N. ↑,
90', Meshchaninov A. 🟨,
90+2', Bagamaev A. 🟨,
90+6', Pozo I. 🟨,

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 15th in the Relegation - FNL and 16th in the Relegation - FNL).

In recent outings, Fakel has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Rodina is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Fakel holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Fakel has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:7 (averaging 0.3:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Fakel against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:3 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Rodina Moscow	12	2	3	7	13:27	-14	9
16	Fakel Voronezh	12	1	3	8	8:20	-12	6

Outrights of Russian Premier League for now

Rodina Moscow: 0.84% Fakel Voronezh: 0.84%

Last Results with these Odds

Fakel - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 44.12%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fakel Voronezh
Russian Premier League
17.10.26	Krylya Sovetov - Fakel	1:2 ✺
Russian Cup
13.10.26	Krasnodar - Fakel	0:2 ✺
Russian Premier League
10.10.26	Fakel - Lokomotiv Moscow	0:5 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Fakel - Vitebsk	1:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
16.09.26	Spartak Moscow - Fakel	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.8 WWLWL
- Rodina Moscow
Russian Premier League
19.10.26	Rodina Moscow - Orenburg	2:2 ✺
Russian Cup
15.10.26	Rodina Moscow - Spartak Moscow	2:4 ✺
Russian Premier League
11.10.26	CSKA Moscow - Rodina Moscow	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
04.10.26	Dynamo Moscow - Rodina Moscow	3:2 ✺
Russian Premier League
16.09.26	Rodina Moscow - Rubin Kazan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
13.04.26	Fakel - Rodina Moscow	1:3
15.09.25	Rodina Moscow - Fakel	2:0
Russian FNL Cup
17.02.20	Rodina Moscow - Fakel	2:0

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