Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 10

Date: 26 November 2024, Tuesday


	Chertsey Town		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.6	2.65
	2.23	3.7	2.6
	2.16	4.16	2.58
	2.19	4.23	2.68	Watch
	2.75	3.75	2.05
	2.17	3.82	2.66
	2.23	3.7	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.73)	3.85 ↑ (3.73)	2.55 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chertsey Town
40.3%

Draw
23.7%

Merthyr Town
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

24.4%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

24.4%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chertsey Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chertsey Town's performance.

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Merthyr Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chertsey Town than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chertsey Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Merthyr Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chertsey Town - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Rees R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', Smerdon 🟥,
74', 1 - 1, Little T. ⚽,
77', 1 - 2, Jarvis C. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South).

Recent matches Chertsey is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Merthyr in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Merthyr could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chertsey Town
English Southern League South Division
23.11.24	Chertsey Town - Gosport Borough	0:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
16.11.24	Bath City - Chertsey Town	2:3 ✺
English Southern League South Division
12.11.24	Chertsey Town - Basingstoke Town	3:0 ✺
09.11.24	Chertsey Town - Swindon Supermarine	3:4 ✺
02.11.24	Wimborne Town - Chertsey Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 LWWLW
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
16.11.24	Dorchester Town - Merthyr Town	2:2 ✺
09.11.24	Merthyr Town - Havant & Waterlooville	5:1 ✺
02.11.24	Plymouth Parkway - Merthyr Town	2:4 ✺
26.10.24	Merthyr Town - Frome Town	4:0 ✺
19.10.24	Merthyr Town - Marlow	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWWWW

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