Match Info

ENGLAND: FA CUP - 1/128-FINALS

Date: 5 November 2022, Saturday

Location: Technique Stadium (Chesterfield)


	Chesterfield		Northampton Town

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.4
	2.05	3.3	3.2
	2.1	3.4	3.5
	2.1	3.4	3.35
	2.11	3.56	3.3
	2	3.2	3.5
	2.06	3.42	3.3	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (3.04)	3.4 ↑ (3.35)	3.38 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chesterfield
44.8%

Draw
27.5%

Northampton Town
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

27.9%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

29%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chesterfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chesterfield's performance.

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Northampton Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chesterfield than the current prediction. (-15.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chesterfield that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+15.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Northampton Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.6%	11.8%	17.6%

Chesterfield - Northampton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Chesterfield will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Northampton will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chesterfield: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Replayed if draw.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chesterfield won 3.

Chesterfield in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Northampton is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Chesterfield could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Chesterfield will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Chesterfield won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Chesterfield won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chesterfield
English National League
01.11.22	Chesterfield - Gateshead	2:1 ✺
29.10.22	Chesterfield - Boreham Wood	2:0 ✺
25.10.22	York City - Chesterfield	1:1 ✺
22.10.22	Chesterfield - Bromley	3:2 ✺
English FA Cup
15.10.22	Anstey Nomads - Chesterfield	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWTWW
- Northampton Town
English League Two
29.10.22	Northampton Town - Newport County	1:1 ✺
25.10.22	Northampton Town - Sutton United	2:2 ✺
22.10.22	Stevenage Borough - Northampton Town	2:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Northampton Town - Arsenal U21	1:3 ✺
English League Two
15.10.22	Leyton Orient - Northampton Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
11.02.17	Northampton Town - Chesterfield	3:1
17.09.16	Chesterfield - Northampton Town	3:1
English League Two
25.01.14	Northampton Town - Chesterfield	1:3
26.11.13	Chesterfield - Northampton Town	0:0
12.01.13	Chesterfield - Northampton Town	3:0
22.09.12	Northampton Town - Chesterfield	0:0

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