Match Info

Date: 25 October 2022, Tuesday

Location: Sixfields Stadium (Northampton)

Referee: Joyce R. (Eng)


	Northampton Town		Sutton United

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.25	3.6
	2.15	3.1	3.4
	2.2	3.15	3.35
	2.22	3.1	3.3
	2.22	3.25	3.64
	2.2	3.1	3.4
	2.22	3.3	3.54	Watch
	2.2	3.05	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.05)	3.16 ↓ (3.18)	3.44 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Town
42.9%

Draw
29.7%

Sutton United
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

28.9%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

28.2%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Sutton United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sutton United than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.4%	4.5%	9.1%

Northampton Town - Sutton United Predictions

Users Predictions: Northampton Town will win (19 of 22 users predict this - 86.36%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.02% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One and 14).

Northampton has the most likely position - 1 (16.77%), has project points - 81, has currently - 30, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (34%), has a good chance of promoted (52%), has a chance of win league (17%).

Sutton has the most likely position - 16 (7.25%), has project points - 57, has currently - 18, has a small chance of relegated (6%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (7%), has a very small chance of promoted (3%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 11, importance 38, small match rating 25. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Northampton is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Sutton is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Northampton will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Northampton won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Northampton won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Town
English League Two
22.10.22	Stevenage Borough - Northampton Town	2:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Northampton Town - Arsenal U21	1:3 ✺
English League Two
15.10.22	Leyton Orient - Northampton Town	0:0 ✺
08.10.22	Northampton Town - Salford City	0:1 ✺
04.10.22	Walsall - Northampton Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLTLL
- Sutton United
English League Two
22.10.22	Sutton United - Walsall	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Sutton United - Oxford United	2:0 ✺
English League Two
15.10.22	AFC Wimbledon - Sutton United	0:1 ✺
08.10.22	Sutton United - Tranmere Rovers	0:2 ✺
04.10.22	Stevenage Borough - Sutton United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
22.01.22	Sutton United - Northampton Town	0:0
02.10.21	Northampton Town - Sutton United	0:2

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