Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 29 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Referee: Perez Y. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol, fubo Sports Network
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Colombia	DSports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
South-america	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
Uruguay	DSports 310
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV
Venezuela	DSports 1


	Cienciano		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.15	3	3.25
	1.98	3.25	3.7	Watch
	2.03	3.32	4.15
	1.95	3.39	4.07	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.4	Watch
	1.93	3.28	4.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.66)	3.18 ↓ (3.2)	3.74 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cienciano
45.4%

Draw
29.5%

Atlético Mineiro
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

29.5%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

29.3%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cienciano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cienciano's performance.

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Mineiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cienciano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Mineiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Cienciano - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Cienciano will win (votes: 9 - 90%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cienciano: 71.4% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 13. Nunez C. 4. Amondarain M. 3. Becerra K. 16. Martinich M. 88. Barreto G. 29. Robles A. 7. Souza Espana C. 10. Hohberg A. 11. Bandiera N. 21. Garces C. (C)	22. Everson (C) 23. Preciado A. 3. Roman I. 6. Alonso J. 36. Pascini K. 5. Alexsander 25. Perez T. 17. Igor Gomes 10. Gustavo Scarpa 92. Dudu 19. Reinier
Substitutes
26. Aguilar R. 8. Aguirre G. 39. Caparo H. 14. Cavero S. 99. Colunga N. 1. Falcon G. (G) 37. Rojas A. 9. Romagnoli J. 30. Roncal J. (G) 17. Sandoval R. 19. Succar M. 27. Yovera A.	11. Bernard 29. Caua 58. Eric Soares 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 35. Igor Toledo 32. Luis Gustavo 48. Mateus Iseppe 27. Minda A. 47. Riquelme 34. Samuel 59. Santos J. 50. Souza L.
Coaches
Melgarejo H.	Dominguez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Bandiera N. ⚽, Barreto G. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Igor Gomes ↓, Minda A. ↑,
46', Alexsander ↓, Bernard ↑,
49', Preciado A. 🟨,
56', Gustavo Scarpa 🟨,
58', Preciado A. 🟨,
63', Becerra K. ↓, Yovera A. ↑,
70', Martinich M. ↓, Caparo H. ↑,
79', Dudu ↓, Mateus Iseppe ↑,
79', Reinier ↓, Caua ↑,
79', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Luis Gustavo ↑,
88', Hohberg A. ↓, Romagnoli J. ↑,
88', Bandiera N. ↓, Aguilar R. ↑,
88', Garces C. ↓, Succar M. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Cienciano is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cienciano won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Cienciano won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Outrights of Copa Sudamericana for now

Atletico-MG: 34.91%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cienciano
Peruvian Liga 1
26.04.26	Cajamarca - Cienciano	2:2 ✺
23.04.26	Los Chankas - Cienciano	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Cienciano - Moquegua	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.04.26	Cienciano - Academia Puerto Cabello	2:0 ✺
09.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Cienciano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TLWWT
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	0:4 ✺
Copa do Brasil
23.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Coritiba - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
29.05.25	Atlético Mineiro - Cienciano	1:1
01.04.25	Cienciano - Atlético Mineiro	0:0

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