Match Info

Serie A - Round 20

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
Albania	15:00	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	11:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	18:00	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	01:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	15:00	DAZN
Azerbaijan	18:00	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:00	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	11:00	Caze TV, Disney+
Bulgaria	16:00	Max Sport 3
Canada	09:00	DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
Chile	11:00	Disney+
China	22:00	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	09:00	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	15:00	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	16:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	15:00	Sport 1
Denmark	15:00	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	16:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	15:00	DAZN France
Georgia	18:00	Setanta Sports 1, Setanta Sports 2
Germany	15:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	16:00	COSMOTE Sport 2
Haiti	09:00	Tele Haiti
Hong Kong	22:00	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	15:00	Match 4
Indonesia	21:00	ANTV, Vidio
Israel	16:00	ONE Sport 2
Italy	15:00	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	23:00	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	15:00	Arena Premium 3
Kuwait	17:00	Shasha
Kyrgyzstan	20:00	Setanta Sports 1
Malaysia	22:00	Astro Arena Bola 2, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	15:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	08:00	Disney+, ESPN
Moldova	16:00	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	15:00	Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	03:00	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Norway	15:00	VG+
Peru	09:00	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	15:00	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	14:00	Sport TV2
Romania	16:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	17:00	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi Arabia	17:00	STC TV
Serbia	15:00	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	15:00	Arena Sport 2
South Africa	16:00	SuperSport Football
South America	—	ESPN South
South Korea	23:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	15:00	DAZN Espana, Movistar Plus+, Orange Futbol 3
Sweden	15:00	TV4 Play
Switzerland	15:00	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	19:00	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	21:00	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	15:00	Diwan Sport
Turkey	17:00	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	19:00	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	16:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	14:00	DAZN
Uruguay	11:00	Disney+
Usa	09:00	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	19:00	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	10:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	21:00	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab


	Fiorentina		Milan

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.3	2.15	Watch
	3.45	3.25	2.18	Watch
	3.64	3.42	2.16	Watch
	3.2	3.3	2.1
	3.7	3.48	2.19
	3.4	3.4	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↓ (4.23)	3.36 ↓ (3.47)	2.16 ↑ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
27.4%

Draw
28.4%

Milan
44.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

22.3%

27.2%

50.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.8%

26.6%

51.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fiorentina's performance.

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Milan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fiorentina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Milan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	16.7%	75%

Fiorentina - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 5 - 8.3%). Milan will win (votes: 45 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 64% – 86%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Fiorentina (1.64) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -0.5 - Milan (2.17) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Fiorentina (2.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Milan will win (22 of 26 users predict this - 84.62%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 3 - 9.7%). Milan (votes: 25 - 80.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 9.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (C) 2. Dodo 15. Comuzzo P. 5. Pongracic M. 21. Gosens R. 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 20. Kean M. 10. Gudmundsson A.	16. Maignan M. (C) 5. De Winter K. 46. Gabbia M. 31. Pavlovic S. 56. Saelemaekers A. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 30. Jashari A. 4. Ricci S. 2. Estupinan P. 11. Pulisic C. 9. Fullkrug N.
Substitutes
4. Brescianini M. 53. Christensen O. (G) 22. Fazzini J. 29. Fortini N. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 91. Piccoli R. 6. Ranieri L. 7. Sohm S. 19. Solomon M.	24. Athekame Z. 33. Bartesaghi D. 35. Dutu M. 19. Fofana Y. 10. Leao R. 14. Modric L. 18. Nkunku C. 27. Odogu D. 12. Rabiot A. 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Allegri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Kean M. 🟨,
45+2', Vanoli P. 🟨,
45+2', Vanoli P. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Estupinan P. 🟨,
60', Estupinan P. ↓, Bartesaghi D. ↑,
60', Fullkrug N. ↓, Leao R. ↑,
60', Jashari A. ↓, Rabiot A. ↑,
63', Loftus-Cheek R. ↓, Fofana Y. ↑,
65', Mandragora R. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Comuzzo P. ⚽, Gudmundsson A. (A),
74', Pavlovic S. ↓, Nkunku C. ↑,
80', Fagioli N. 🟨,
82', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
83', Parisi F. ↓, Fortini N. ↑,
83', Gosens R. ↓, Ranieri L. ↑,
84', Rabiot A. 🟨,
90', 1 - 1, Nkunku C. ⚽, Fofana Y. (A),
90+1', Ndour C. ↓, Sohm S. ↑,
90+4', Fofana Y. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Milan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Milan might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Milan: Gimenez S. (Ankle Injury) Tomori F. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Dzeko E. (Foot Injury) Richardson A. (Inactive) Viti M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Milan: Nkunku C. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:33. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 1.4:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	AC Milan	9	5	3	1	18:11	7	18
18	Fiorentina	9	1	2	6	11:21	-10	5

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AC Milan: 5.86% Fiorentina: 0.18%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
07.01.26	Lazio - Fiorentina	2:2 ✺
04.01.26	Fiorentina - Cremonese	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Parma - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Fiorentina - Udinese	5:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Lausanne-Sport - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWLWL
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
08.01.26	Milan - Genoa	1:1 ✺
02.01.26	Cagliari - Milan	0:1 ✺
28.12.25	Milan - Verona	3:0 ✺
Italian Super Cup
18.12.25	Napoli - Milan	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.12.25	Milan - Sassuolo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
19.10.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:1
05.04.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:2
06.10.24	Fiorentina - Milan	2:1
30.03.24	Fiorentina - Milan	1:2
25.11.23	Milan - Fiorentina	1:0
04.03.23	Fiorentina - Milan	2:1
13.11.22	Milan - Fiorentina	2:1

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