Match Info

Serie A - Round 20

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
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Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
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Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
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Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
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Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
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Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
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Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab


	Fiorentina		Milan

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.3	2.15	Watch
	3.45	3.25	2.18	Watch
	3.64	3.42	2.16	Watch
	3.2	3.3	2.1
	3.7	3.48	2.19
	3.4	3.4	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↓ (4.23)	3.36 ↓ (3.47)	2.16 ↑ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
27.4%

Draw
28.4%

Milan
44.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.3%

27.2%

50.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.8%

26.6%

51.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fiorentina's performance.

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Milan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fiorentina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Milan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	16.7%	75%

Fiorentina - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 5 - 8.3%). Milan will win (votes: 45 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 64% – 86%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Fiorentina (1.64) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -0.5 - Milan (2.17) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Fiorentina (2.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Milan will win (22 of 26 users predict this - 84.62%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 3 - 9.7%). Milan (votes: 25 - 80.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 9.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (C) 2. Dodo 15. Comuzzo P. 5. Pongracic M. 21. Gosens R. 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 20. Kean M. 10. Gudmundsson A.	16. Maignan M. (C) 5. De Winter K. 46. Gabbia M. 31. Pavlovic S. 56. Saelemaekers A. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 30. Jashari A. 4. Ricci S. 2. Estupinan P. 11. Pulisic C. 9. Fullkrug N.
Substitutes
4. Brescianini M. 53. Christensen O. (G) 22. Fazzini J. 29. Fortini N. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 91. Piccoli R. 6. Ranieri L. 7. Sohm S. 19. Solomon M.	24. Athekame Z. 33. Bartesaghi D. 35. Dutu M. 19. Fofana Y. 10. Leao R. 14. Modric L. 18. Nkunku C. 27. Odogu D. 12. Rabiot A. 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Allegri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Kean M. 🟨,
45+2', Vanoli P. 🟨,
45+2', Vanoli P. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Estupinan P. 🟨,
60', Estupinan P. ↓, Bartesaghi D. ↑,
60', Fullkrug N. ↓, Leao R. ↑,
60', Jashari A. ↓, Rabiot A. ↑,
63', Loftus-Cheek R. ↓, Fofana Y. ↑,
65', Mandragora R. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Comuzzo P. ⚽, Gudmundsson A. (A),
74', Pavlovic S. ↓, Nkunku C. ↑,
80', Fagioli N. 🟨,
82', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
83', Parisi F. ↓, Fortini N. ↑,
83', Gosens R. ↓, Ranieri L. ↑,
84', Rabiot A. 🟨,
90', 1 - 1, Nkunku C. ⚽, Fofana Y. (A),
90+1', Ndour C. ↓, Sohm S. ↑,
90+4', Fofana Y. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Milan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Milan might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Milan: Gimenez S. (Ankle Injury) Tomori F. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Dzeko E. (Foot Injury) Richardson A. (Inactive) Viti M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Milan: Nkunku C. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:33. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 1.4:1.4).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AC Milan: 7.76% Fiorentina: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10:4	6	11
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6:12	-6	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
07.01.26	Lazio - Fiorentina	2:2 ✺
04.01.26	Fiorentina - Cremonese	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Parma - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Fiorentina - Udinese	5:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Lausanne-Sport - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWLWL
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
08.01.26	Milan - Genoa	1:1 ✺
02.01.26	Cagliari - Milan	0:1 ✺
28.12.25	Milan - Verona	3:0 ✺
Italian Super Cup
18.12.25	Napoli - Milan	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.12.25	Milan - Sassuolo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
19.10.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:1
05.04.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:2
06.10.24	Fiorentina - Milan	2:1
30.03.24	Fiorentina - Milan	1:2
25.11.23	Milan - Fiorentina	1:0
04.03.23	Fiorentina - Milan	2:1
13.11.22	Milan - Fiorentina	2:1

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