Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 1 August 2023, Tuesday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV5


	Corinthians		Newells Old Boys

	1	X	2
	2.1	3	4.2	Watch
	2.05	2.8	4.33
	2.16	2.8	4.1
	2.11	2.91	4.4
	2.05	2.7	4.2
	2.07	2.93	4.3	Watch
	2.1	2.8	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.96)	2.85 ↓ (3.21)	4.26 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
44.9%

Draw
33%

Newells Old Boys
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.6%

29.1%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

28.3%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Newells Old Boys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newells Old Boys than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	30%	0%

Corinthians - Newells Old Boys Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Corinthians: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cassio (C) 23. Fagner 25. Bruno Mendez 26. Biro 34. Murillo 21. Matheus Bidu 33. Ruan O. 7. Maycon 30. Matheus Araujo 28. Adson 9. Yuri Alberto	1. Hoyos L. (G) 6. Mosquera J. 25. Velazquez G. 42. Ortiz G. 19. Mansilla F. 23. Martino A. 22. Portillo M. 13. Sforza J. 30. Ferreira C. 7. Gomez I. 28. Recalde J.
Substitutes
11. Angel Romero 4. Carlos G. d. N. S. 22. Carlos Miguel (G) 5. Fausto Vera 41. Felipe Augusto 17. Giovane 20. Giuliano 47. Joao Pedro 13. Leo Mana 27. Pedro Henrique 29. Roni 36. Wesley	18. Aguirre B. 47. Balzi G. 31. Barlasina W. (G) 29. Esponda M. 37. Glavinovich I. 3. Luciano M. 14. Mendez A. 43. Montenegro L. S. 16. Reasco D. 26. Sordo R. 27. Tica J. 21. Vangioni L.
Coaches
Luxemburgo V.	Heinze G.

Preview

1st leg.

Corinthians in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Newell's Old Boys is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Corinthians could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Corinthians will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
29.07.23	Corinthians - Vasco da Gama	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.07.23	Corinthians - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
22.07.23	Bahia - Corinthians	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.07.23	Universitario de Deportes - Corinthians	1:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
15.07.23	Corinthians - América Mineiro	4:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWTWW
- Newells Old Boys
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.07.23	Newells Old Boys - Talleres de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
24.07.23	Boca Juniors - Newells Old Boys	2:1 ✺
17.07.23	Newells Old Boys - Atlético Tucumán	0:0 ✺
11.07.23	Independiente - Newells Old Boys	0:2 ✺
07.07.23	Central Córdoba - Newells Old Boys	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLTWL

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