Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 5

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Corinthians		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.5	5.5	Watch
	1.52	4.1	6.5
	1.75	3.5	5
	1.75	3.62	5.63
	1.73	3.54	5.32	Watch
	1.75	3.7	4.78	Watch
	1.75	3.5	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.47)	3.64 ↓ (4.14)	5.39 ↓ (7.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
56%

Draw
26.3%

Sport Recife
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.8%

22.9%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.8%

17.9%

15.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Corinthians's form might have worsened.

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sport Recife's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Corinthians that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Corinthians - Sport Recife Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - Recife (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Corinthians will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Corinthians will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 3 - 75%). Recife (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Matheus Donelli (G) 33. Leo Mana 3. Torres F. 13. Gustavo Henrique 26. Angileri F. 14. Raniele 19. Carrillo A. 27. Breno Bidon 11. Angel Romero (C) 9. Yuri Alberto 10. Depay M.	22. Caique Franca (C) 32. Hereda 3. Lucas Cunha 6. Silva J. 44. Chico 14. Rivera C. 37. Du Queiroz 27. Oliveira S. 30. Chrystian Barletta 38. Arthur Sousa 17. Carlos Alberto
Substitutes
80. Alex Santana 5. Andre Ramalho 25. Caca 53. Caipira 35. Charles Rigon 61. Dieguinho 40. Felipe Longo (G) 56. Gui Negao 22. Hernandez H. 21. Matheus Bidu 7. Maycon 37. Ryan	25. Antonio Carlos 20. Atencio R. 41. Davi (G) 2. Di Placido L. 8. Dominguez F. 11. Gustavo Maia 77. Lenny Lobato 10. Lucas Lima 59. Ortiz C. 7. Paciencia G. 12. Thiago Couto (G) 58. Ze Lucas
Coaches
Ribeiro de Oliveira O.	Miguel P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', Caique Franca 🟨,
45', 0 - 1, Oliveira S. ⚽, Hereda (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', 1 - 1, Depay M. ⚽, Angel Romero (A),
53', Rivera C. 🟨,
55', Arthur Sousa ↓, Paciencia G. ↑,
55', Chrystian Barletta ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
58', Torres F. 🟨,
58', Breno Bidon 🟨,
62', 2 - 1, Depay M. ⚽,
64', Carlos Alberto ↓, Lenny Lobato ↑,
64', Oliveira S. ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
70', Breno Bidon ↓, Maycon ↑,
70', Carrillo A. ↓, Alex Santana ↑,
70', Rivera C. ↓, Ze Lucas ↑,
77', Matheus Donelli 🟨,
78', Raniele ↓, Ryan ↑,
78', Angel Romero ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
90+3', Yuri Alberto ↓, Hernandez H. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Corinthians won 3.

Corinthians is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recife has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recife could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Corinthians is a favorite.

There will not play in Corinthians: Garro R. (Knee Injury) Hugo Souza (Hamstring Injury) Martinez J. (Yellow Cards) Matheuzinho (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Recife: Antonio Carlos (Hamstring Injury) Dalbert (Calf Injury) Igor Carius (Hamstring Injury) Matheus Alexandre (Yellow Cards) Pablo (Inactive) Paciencia G. (Muscle Injury) Rafael Thyere (Inactive)

There are questionable in Corinthians: Igor Coronado (Inactive)

There are questionable in Recife: Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Corinthians won 10 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 31:14 (average 1.9:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Corinthians won 8 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 23:6 (average 2.9:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
16.04.25	Corinthians - Fluminense	0:2 ✺
12.04.25	Palmeiras - Corinthians	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	América de Cali - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.04.25	Corinthians - Vasco da Gama	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
02.04.25	Corinthians - Huracán Buenos Aires	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLTWL
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
16.04.25	Sport Recife - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Sport Recife	3:1 ✺
06.04.25	Sport Recife - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
02.04.25	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	2:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.03.25	São Paulo - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
09.10.21	Sport Recife - Corinthians	1:0
24.06.21	Corinthians - Sport Recife	2:1
21.01.21	Corinthians - Sport Recife	3:0
23.09.20	Sport Recife - Corinthians	1:0
16.09.18	Corinthians - Sport Recife	2:1
20.05.18	Sport Recife - Corinthians	1:1
03.12.17	Sport Recife - Corinthians	1:0

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