Match Info

SPAIN: SEGUNDA RFEF - GROUP 1 - ROUND 21

Date: 4 February 2024, Sunday


	Covadonga		Ourense CF

	1	X	2
	4.5	2.9	1.8
	4.75	3.1	1.83
	4.11	2.84	1.84
	5.32	3.22	1.75
	2.7	2.88	2.45
	5.4	3.04	1.77
	4.7	3.1	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.5 ↑ (2.7)	3.01 ↑ (2.88)	1.89 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covadonga
20.5%

Draw
30.6%

Ourense CF
48.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

30.8%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

31.2%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covadonga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Covadonga's form might have worsened.

Ourense CF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ourense CF's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covadonga than the current prediction. (+12.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Covadonga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ourense CF, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	22.2%	66.7%

Covadonga - Ourense CF Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Covadonga will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Ourense CF will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ourense CF: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Recent matches Covadonga is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ourense CF is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ourense CF could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Ourense CF will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Covadonga won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Covadonga
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
27.01.24	Compostela - Covadonga	2:0 ✺
21.01.24	Zamora - Covadonga	2:0 ✺
14.01.24	Covadonga - Arandina	2:1 ✺
07.01.24	Covadonga - Marino de Luanco	1:1 ✺
17.12.23	Rayo Cantabria - Covadonga	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LLWTT
- Ourense CF
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
28.01.24	Ourense CF - Arandina	2:0 ✺
21.01.24	Marino de Luanco - Ourense CF	0:0 ✺
13.01.24	Ourense CF - Rayo Cantabria	3:0 ✺
06.01.24	Ourense CF - Real Avilés	2:0 ✺
16.12.23	Real Oviedo B - Ourense CF	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
23.09.23	Ourense CF - Covadonga	3:1

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