Match Info

EFL Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Coventry Building Society Arena (Coventry) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, Startimes Sports Focus, Supersport Action, SuperSport Grandstand
Argentina	16:00	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	05:00	beIN Connect
Belarus	22:00	Sport TV
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 7
Brazil	16:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	Diema Sport 3
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	16:00	Disney+
Colombia	14:00	Disney+
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV3+, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	21:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay
India	00:30	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	02:00	Vidio
Italy	21:00	Como TV
Japan	04:00	DAZN Japan
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Malaysia	03:00	SKY NET Sports 1
Malta	21:00	TSN Malta 2
Mexico	13:00	Disney+
Netherlands	21:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	07:00	beIN Connect
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport Action
Norway	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Peru	14:00	Disney+
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	03:00	mio Sports 3
Slovakia	21:00	Nova Sport 1, Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	Arena Sport 3
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport Grandstand
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
United Kingdom	20:00	Sky Go
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+


	Coventry City		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	3.50	3.50	2.01	Watch
	3.30	3.60	2.10
	3.30	3.80	1.97	Watch
	3.53	3.70	2.11
	3.19	3.74	2.14	Watch
	3.45	3.55	2.08
	3.75	3.52	1.99	Watch
	3.30	3.60	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (3.05)	3.63 ↑ (3.54)	2.06 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coventry City
27.8%

Draw
26.2%

Aston Villa
46%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31%

26.7%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

26.7%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coventry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coventry City than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.2%	25%	68.7%

Coventry City - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Coventry will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Coventry (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Aston Villa (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Aston Villa (2.20) (votes: 82%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Bentley D. (G) 22. Latibeaudiere J. 4. Thomas B. (C) 24. Amenda A. 7. Sakamoto T. 8. Yirenkyi C. 29. Torp V. 12. Mfuni S. 38. Hamer G. 34. Gboho Y. 49. Cherif S.	40. Bizot M. (G) 29. Wan-Bissaka A. 4. Harwood-Bellis T. 5. Mings T. 13. Ruggeri M. 26. Bogarde L. 6. Barkley R. 19. Mbaye I. 7. McGinn J. (C) 53. Hemmings G. 18. Abraham T.
Substitutes
21. Bidwell J. 6. Grimes M. 10. Mason-Clark E. 16. Onyeka F. 2. Pinnock E. 9. Simms E. 17. Tchaouna L. 23. Thomas-Asante B. 13. Wilson B. (G)	47. Alysson 10. Buendia E. 2. Cash M. 17. Garnacho A. 11. Jackson N. 8. Kamara B. 3. Lindelof V. 44. Manzambi J. 1. Suzuki Z. (G)
Coaches
Lampard F.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Abraham T. ⚽, Hemmings G. (A),
12', Amenda A. ↓, Pinnock E. ↑,
23', Mfuni S. 🟨,
26', Barkley R. 🟨,
27', 1 - 1, Torp V. ⚽,
40', 1 - 2, Barkley R. ⚽, Mbaye I. (A),
43', Wan-Bissaka A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bizot M. ↓, Suzuki Z. ↑,
46', Yirenkyi C. 🟨,
57', Sakamoto T. ↓, Tchaouna L. ↑,
58', Cherif S. ↓, Simms E. ↑,
59', 1 - 3, Abraham T. ⚽, Barkley R. (A),
64', McGinn J. ↓, Manzambi J. ↑,
64', Mbaye I. ↓, Buendia E. ↑,
69', Abraham T. ↓, Jackson N. ↑,
73', Yirenkyi C. ↓, Onyeka F. ↑,
73', Mfuni S. ↓, Bidwell J. ↑,
79', Hemmings G. ↓, Alysson ↑,
87', Onyeka F. 🟨,
90', Buendia E. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Coventry may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Aston Villa might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Coventry: Awoniyi T. (Red Card) Eccles J. (Injury) Kesler-Hayden K. (Muscle Injury) Simms E. (Inactive) Woolfenden L. (Knee Injury) Wright H. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Goretzka L. (Knee Injury) Maatsen I. (Ankle Injury) Madjo B. (Ankle Injury) Onana A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Coventry: Onyeka F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Cash M. (Muscle Injury) Torres P. (Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Outrights of English League Cup for now

Aston Villa: 3.96% Coventry: 0.74%

Last Results with these Odds

Aston Villa - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.24%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coventry City
English Premier League
13.09.26	Coventry City - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:5 ✺
05.09.26	Manchester City - Coventry City	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Coventry City - Hull City	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Plymouth Argyle - Coventry City	2:4 ✺
English Premier League
21.08.26	Arsenal - Coventry City	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLWL
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
12.09.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Club Brugge - Aston Villa	2:3 ✺
English Premier League
05.09.26	Hull City - Aston Villa	0:0 ✺
31.08.26	Aston Villa - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWTLL

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