Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 21

Date: 9 December 2022, Friday

Location: The People’s Pension Stadium (Crawley)

Referee: Nield T. (Eng)


	Crawley Town		Hartlepool United

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.6	3.75
	1.88	3.5	3.9
	1.9	3.7	3.6
	1.91	3.55	3.65
	1.91	3.77	4.05
	1.91	3.5	3.8
	1.93	3.74	4	Watch
	1.9	3.5	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.02)	3.61 ↑ (3.31)	3.8 ↑ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crawley Town
49.3%

Draw
26%

Hartlepool United
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

28%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

27.8%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crawley Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.3%	7.3%	5.5%

Crawley Town - Hartlepool United Predictions

Users Predictions: Crawley Town will win (48 of 55 users predict this - 87.27%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.46% – 96.08%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Crawley has the most likely position - 20 (10.1%), has project points - 53, has currently - 21, has a small chance of relegated (7%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 24 (56.03%), has project points - 34, has currently - 12, has a good chance of relegated (75%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has very small quality 6, small importance 29, small match rating 17. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Crawley won 1.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Crawley could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Crawley will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Crawley won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Crawley won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crawley Town
English League Two
03.12.22	Crawley Town - Swindon Town	2:0 ✺
22.11.22	Crawley Town - Gillingham	0:0 ✺
19.11.22	Walsall - Crawley Town	2:1 ✺
12.11.22	Crawley Town - Barrow	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
08.11.22	Burnley - Crawley Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WTLWL
- Hartlepool United
English League Two
03.12.22	Hartlepool United - Stockport County	0:5 ✺
English FA Cup
26.11.22	Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town	3:1 ✺
English League Two
19.11.22	Barrow - Hartlepool United	3:1 ✺
English FA Cup
15.11.22	Hartlepool United - Solihull Moors	2:1 penalties ✺
English League Two
12.11.22	Stevenage Borough - Hartlepool United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
12.02.22	Crawley Town - Hartlepool United	0:1
07.08.21	Hartlepool United - Crawley Town	1:0
14.01.17	Crawley Town - Hartlepool United	1:0
08.10.16	Hartlepool United - Crawley Town	1:1
19.03.16	Crawley Town - Hartlepool United	0:0
24.10.15	Hartlepool United - Crawley Town	1:2
English League One
27.04.13	Crawley Town - Hartlepool United	2:2

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