The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Crawley Town 43.7%
Draw 27%
Gillingham 29.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
39.5%
25.9%
34.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.8%
24.8%
36.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Crawley Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)
Gillingham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gillingham might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (-5.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Crawley Town that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (+6.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gillingham could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
55.6%
22.2%
22.2%
Crawley Town - Gillingham Predictions
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Crawley will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Gillingham will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Confidence interval (95%) for Crawley: 32.6% – 78.6%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
35. Chapman J. (G) 5. Barker C. 12. Richards L. 2. Malone S. 22. Adeyemo A. 26. Williams J. (C) 30. Copley L. 49. Darcy R. 19. Pereira D. 38. Adeyemo T. 99. Orsi-Dadomo D.
1. Morris G. (G) 2. Hutton R. 5. Smith A. 30. Gale S. 3. Clark M. 24. Waldock H. 7. McCleary G. 23. Dack B. (C) 38. Hale R. 12. Palmer-Houlden S. 9. Andrews J.
Substitutes
6. Anderson M. 7. Forster H. 44. Lolos K. 13. McKirdy H. 31. Odimayo A. 32. Richards T.
15. Akomeah T. 32. Cirino L. 27. Khumbeni N. 40. Luxton M. 11. Rowe A. 25. Turner J. (G) 19. Vokes S.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Dack B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', Orsi-Dadomo D. ↓, McKirdy H. ↑,
64', Andrews J. 🟨,
71', Andrews J. ↓, Vokes S. ↑,
71', Palmer-Houlden S. ↓, Rowe A. ↑,
73', Rowe A. 🟨,
74', Copley L. ↓, Anderson M. ↑,
74', Pereira D. ↓, Richards T. ↑,
74', Darcy R. ↓, Forster H. ↑,
79', Williams J. 🟨,
82', Richards L. ↓, Odimayo A. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 0, Richards T. ⚽, Anderson M. (A),
90+3', 2 - 0, Adeyemo T. ⚽, Forster H. (A),
Preview
The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 21 and 16).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crawley won 1.
Recent form of Crawley has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Gillingham has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Crawley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Gillingham has had a series of home games.
Crawley might have a minor edge in this game.
There will not play in Crawley: Anderson M.
(Injury)
Cashman D.
(Inactive)
Vassell T.
(Inactive)
There will not play in Gillingham: Antwi C.
(Injury)
Little A.
(Red Card)
Masterson C.
(Inactive)
There are questionable in Crawley: Loft R.
(Injury)
There are questionable in Gillingham: Coleman E.
(Inactive)
Smith J.
(Injury)
In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Crawley won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:21. (average 1.1:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Crawley won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1.4:1.7).
Outrights of English League Two for now
Gillingham: 2%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
4
Gillingham
10
4
4
2
15:10
5
16
24
Crawley
8
1
2
5
8:15
-7
5
Last Results with these Odds
Crawley Town - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 39.47%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.
Gillingham - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.61%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.
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Chapman J. (G) 
Barker C. 
Richards L. 
Williams J. (C) 
Pereira D. 
Adeyemo T. 
McCleary G. 
Hale R. 
Anderson M. 
Lolos K. 
Cirino L. 
Vokes S. 
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