Match Info

League One - Round 45

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: The Broadfield Stadium (Crawley)

Referee: Miles J. (Eng)


	Crawley Town		Northampton Town

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.4	Watch
	1.95	3.6	3.5
	2.1	3.4	3.4
	2.17	3.42	3.55
	2.09	3.43	3.39	Watch
	2	3.5	3.5
	2.09	3.46	3.46	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (1.95)	3.45 ↓ (3.68)	3.45 ↓ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crawley Town
45.4%

Draw
27.3%

Northampton Town
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

25.6%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

26%

25.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crawley Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Northampton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	0%	35.7%

Crawley Town - Northampton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Crawley will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Northampton will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Crawley: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Crawley (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Steward T. (G) 30. Radcliffe B. 3. Conroy D. (C) 5. Barker C. 11. Roles J. 12. Camara P. 10. Fraser L. 6. Anderson M. 19. Kelly J. 14. Hepburn-Murphy R. 8. Holohan G.	1. Burge L. (G) 22. Odimayo A. 2. Magloire T. 12. Guinness-Walker N. 28. Eyoma T. 8. Perry B. 16. Taylor T. 10. Pinnock M. (C) 18. McGeehan C. 19. Roberts T. 15. Costelloe D.
Substitutes
26. Doyle K. 45. John-Jules T. 25. Papadopoulos A. 18. Quitirna A. 29. Showunmi T. 17. Tanimu B.	33. Brough P. 35. Dyche M. 24. Fosu T. 23. Hondermarck W. 21. Mbete L. 13. Tzanev N. (G) 11. Wilson J.
Coaches
Lindsey S.	Nolan K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Hepburn-Murphy R. ⚽, Camara P. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Odimayo A. ↓, Mbete L. ↑,
66', 2 - 0, Kelly J. ⚽, Holohan G. (A),
67', Roberts T. ↓, Fosu T. ↑,
68', Taylor T. ↓, Wilson J. ↑,
74', Roles J. ↓, Quitirna A. ↑,
75', Camara P. ↓, Doyle K. ↑,
76', Guinness-Walker N. ↓, Hondermarck W. ↑,
83', Holohan G. ↓, Papadopoulos A. ↑,
83', Pinnock M. ↓, Brough P. ↑,
88', 3 - 0, Doyle K. ⚽, Fraser L. (A),
90+1', Fraser L. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 18).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Crawley won 1.

Crawley is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Northampton is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Crawley will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Crawley: Cox M. (Injury) Flint J. (Inactive) Ibrahim B. (Yellow Cards) Mukena J. (Inactive) Sandford R. (Inactive) Watson L. (Injury) Wollacott J. (Injury)

There will not play in Northampton: Eaves T. (Injury) Guthrie J. (Knee Injury) Morton C. (Knee Injury) Sowerby J. (Knee Injury) Willis J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Crawley: Adeyemo A. (Inactive) Forster H. (Injury)

There are questionable in Northampton: Hoskins S. (Injury) Shaw L. (Knee Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Crawley won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 11:14 (average 0.9:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Crawley won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7:6 (average 1.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crawley Town
English League One
21.04.25	Crawley Town - Exeter City	3:1 ✺
18.04.25	Birmingham City - Crawley Town	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Crawley Town - Leyton Orient	1:3 ✺
05.04.25	Stevenage Borough - Crawley Town	3:1 ✺
01.04.25	Crawley Town - Peterborough United	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WTLLL
- Northampton Town
English League One
21.04.25	Northampton Town - Shrewsbury Town	4:1 ✺
18.04.25	Charlton Athletic - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Northampton Town - Reading	0:0 ✺
05.04.25	Peterborough United - Northampton Town	0:4 ✺
01.04.25	Northampton Town - Rotherham United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
26.10.24	Northampton Town - Crawley Town	3:0
English League Two
04.03.23	Northampton Town - Crawley Town	1:0
16.08.22	Crawley Town - Northampton Town	2:3
08.01.22	Northampton Town - Crawley Town	0:1
28.08.21	Crawley Town - Northampton Town	0:0
26.12.19	Crawley Town - Northampton Town	4:0
21.09.19	Northampton Town - Crawley Town	2:2

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