Match Info

League One - Round 44

Date: 21 April 2025, Monday

Location: The Broadfield Stadium (Crawley)

Referee: Toner B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Crawley Town		Exeter City

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.75	3.1	Watch
	2.15	3.4	3.1
	2.1	3.75	3.2	Watch
	2.17	3.82	3.22
	2.11	3.66	3.14	Watch
	2.25	3.3	3
	2.15	3.6	3.23	Watch
	2.1	3.75	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.44)	3.63 ↑ (3.54)	3.15 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crawley Town
44.1%

Draw
26%

Exeter City
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

26.6%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

26.4%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crawley Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Crawley Town's performance.

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Crawley Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	12.5%	25%

Crawley Town - Exeter City Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Crawley will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Exeter will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Crawley: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Crawley (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Crawley (1.34) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Crawley (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Steward T. (G) 30. Radcliffe B. 3. Conroy D. (C) 5. Barker C. 11. Roles J. 12. Camara P. 10. Fraser L. 8. Holohan G. 19. Kelly J. 14. Hepburn-Murphy R. 6. Anderson M.	1. Whitworth J. (G) 20. Turns E. 5. Fitzwater J. (C) 4. Hartridge A. 2. McMillan J. 23. Colwill J. 8. Francis E. 14. Niskanen I. 17. Watts C. 11. Oluwabori A. 19. Cox S.
Substitutes
26. Doyle K. 45. John-Jules T. 25. Papadopoulos A. 18. Quitirna A. 29. Showunmi T. 17. Tanimu B.	12. Cole R. 33. Dean T. 18. Harper V. 25. MacDonald A. 47. Richards J. 6. Woods R. 30. Yogane T.
Coaches
Lindsey S.	Caldwell G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Hepburn-Murphy R. ⚽,
9', 2 - 0, Camara P. ⚽, Hepburn-Murphy R. (A),
23', 3 - 0, Hepburn-Murphy R. ⚽,
25', 3 - 1, Watts C. ⚽, Francis E. (A),
26', Watts C. 🟨,
34', Colwill J. 🟨,
41', Radcliffe B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Oluwabori A. ↓, Yogane T. ↑,
46', Turns E. ↓, Harper V. ↑,
46', Watts C. ↓, Woods R. ↑,
54', Kelly J. 🟨,
54', Francis E. 🟨,
62', Hartridge A. 🟨,
70', Fitzwater J. ↓, Cole R. ↑,
70', Niskanen I. ↓, Dean T. ↑,
71', Camara P. ↓, Doyle K. ↑,
75', Roles J. ↓, Quitirna A. ↑,
78', Fraser L. 🟨,
89', Francis E. 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Crawley won 1.

Crawley is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Exeter is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Crawley could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Crawley will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Crawley: Adeyemo A. (Inactive) Cox M. (Injury) Flint J. (Inactive) Ibrahim B. (Yellow Cards) Mukena J. (Inactive) Sandford R. (Inactive) Watson L. (Injury) Wollacott J. (Injury)

There will not play in Exeter: Mitchell D. (Knee Injury) Purrington B. (Injury) Sweeney P. (Calf Injury) Trevitt R. (Hamstring Injury) Wildschut Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Crawley: Forster H. (Injury)

There are questionable in Exeter: Yfeko J. (Inactive)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Crawley won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 24:26 (average 1.5:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Crawley won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8:10 (average 1.1:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crawley Town
English League One
18.04.25	Birmingham City - Crawley Town	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Crawley Town - Leyton Orient	1:3 ✺
05.04.25	Stevenage Borough - Crawley Town	3:1 ✺
01.04.25	Crawley Town - Peterborough United	3:4 ✺
29.03.25	Rotherham United - Crawley Town	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23 TLLLW
- Exeter City
English League One
18.04.25	Exeter City - Burton Albion	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Bristol Rovers - Exeter City	1:2 ✺
08.04.25	Exeter City - Wigan Athletic	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Exeter City - Stockport County	0:2 ✺
01.04.25	Barnsley - Exeter City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
29.12.24	Exeter City - Crawley Town	4:4
English League Cup
08.08.23	Exeter City - Crawley Town	2:1
English League Two
15.03.22	Exeter City - Crawley Town	2:1
19.10.21	Crawley Town - Exeter City	1:3
27.02.21	Crawley Town - Exeter City	2:0
20.10.20	Exeter City - Crawley Town	2:1
29.02.20	Exeter City - Crawley Town	1:1

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