Match Info

League One - Round 30

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Sixfields Stadium (Northampton)

Referee: O'Connor J. (Eng)


	Northampton Town		Reading

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.3	2.3
	2.92	3.25	2.38
	3	3.41	2.42
	3.08	3.28	2.31	Watch
	2.88	3.1	2.38
	2.91	3.31	2.36	Watch
	2.9	3.4	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (2.97)	3.29 ↑ (3.2)	2.35 ↑ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Town
31.9%

Draw
28.4%

Reading
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

28.8%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

27.4%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Reading has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Reading than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	13.3%	60%

Northampton Town - Reading Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Northampton will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Reading will win (votes: 9 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Reading: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Reading (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Reading (1.64) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Reading (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Fitzsimons R. (G) 5. Guthrie J. (C) 21. Perkins J. 12. Guinness-Walker N. 3. McCarthy C. 23. Taylor T. 4. Campbell D. 7. Hoskins S. 11. Swyer K. 9. Eaves T. 10. List E.	1. Pereira J. (G) 24. Nyambe R. 15. O'Connor P. 3. Dorsett A. J. R. 5. Roberts H. 32. Lane P. 10. Wing L. (C) 8. Savage C. 29. Doyle K. 7. Marriott J. 27. Keane W.
Substitutes
1. Burge L. (G) 35. Dyche M. 15. Evans O. 17. Jacobs M. 8. McGeehan C. 24. Moore E. 27. Vale J.	12. Burns F. 9. Ehibhatiomhan K. 6. Fraser L. 30. Ritchie M. 25. Stevens J. (G) 14. Ward B. 17. Yiadom A.
Coaches
Nolan K.	Richardson L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Guthrie J. ↓, Moore E. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', Savage C. 🟨,
55', 0 - 1, Marriott J. ⚽, Wing L. (A),
57', Moore E. 🟨,
58', 0 - 2, Keane W. ⚽, Wing L. (A),
62', Savage C. ↓, Fraser L. ↑,
63', Perkins J. ↓, McGeehan C. ↑,
63', McCarthy C. ↓, Dyche M. ↑,
67', McGeehan C. 🟨,
75', Lane P. ↓, Ehibhatiomhan K. ↑,
75', Doyle K. ↓, Ritchie M. ↑,
78', Swyer K. ↓, Vale J. ↑,
78', List E. ↓, Evans J. ↑,
89', Nyambe R. ↓, Burns F. ↑,
89', Keane W. ↓, Yiadom A. ↑,
90+2', Yiadom A. 🟨,
90+4', Roberts H. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 13).

Northampton has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Reading has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Reading has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Northampton: Fornah T. (Inactive) Shaw L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Reading: Elliott B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Northampton: Edwards K. (Injury) Forbes M. (Inactive) McGeehan C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Reading: Williams D. (Inactive)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Northampton won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Northampton won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Outrights of English League One for now

Reading: 6.34%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Reading	9	4	3	2	22:11	11	15

Last Results with these Odds

Northampton Town - the odds 2.97 are the expected chance of winning is 30.96%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Town
English League One
27.01.26	Rotherham United - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Blackpool - Northampton Town	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Northampton Town - Wycombe Wanderers	1:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
14.01.26	Northampton Town - Walsall	4:2 ✺
English League One
04.01.26	Bolton Wanderers - Northampton Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LLLWT
- Reading
English League One
27.01.26	Reading - Exeter City	2:2 ✺
24.01.26	Reading - Barnsley	2:2 ✺
17.01.26	Leyton Orient - Reading	3:1 ✺
04.01.26	Reading - Stockport County	1:0 ✺
01.01.26	Reading - Burton Albion	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
21.10.25	Reading - Northampton Town	1:0
12.04.25	Northampton Town - Reading	0:0
26.12.24	Reading - Northampton Town	4:1
29.03.24	Reading - Northampton Town	1:0
03.10.23	Northampton Town - Reading	3:1

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